It is now the opening season of South African politics, marked by the upcoming state of the nation address (Sona). Still, after engaging with various South African citizens throughout December and parts of January, a prevailing sentiment has emerged regarding the country’s overall direction. Namely South Africa is experiencing an interregnum moment — a period where authority figures in government and the private sector struggle to articulate a vision for the future amid mounting crises.
This interregnum moment aligns with what I call “political creative destruction” (PCD), an extension of Joseph Schumpeter’s concept of creative destruction. Just as economies undergo a disruptive transformation, political systems worldwide are under pressure from shifts away from established liberal norms.
The 2024 electoral supercycle, as identified by the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, reflected this phenomenon. Parties such as the ANC, Botswana Democratic Party, the UK's Conservative Party and the US Democratic Party suffered severe electoral losses, exposing their failure to respond to contemporary policy challenges.
In this context, how will South Africa’s grand coalition — not a government of national unity — manage this interregnum moment amid evolving PCD in 2025 and beyond?
Defining the interregnum moment
The London School of Economics defines an interregnum as “a period when a throne is vacant between the reign of a sovereign and the accession of a successor”. However, drawing on thinkers like Aleksandr Koptev, Abiodun Adesegun, Adetola Adejo and Leo Tolstoy, I define an interregnum moment as a time marked by an absence of impactful leadership — not from one individual, but from a collective force capable of driving transformation. South Africa has many voices but few true leaders in both public and private spheres.
The misleading narrative that South Africans should celebrate the mere existence of a fictional government of national unity is giving way to the reality that the country is governed by a grand coalition. This means governance remains sluggish and major macro-planning problems persist
Will this persist?
Many South Africans initially welcomed the peaceful transition of power in 2024, but enthusiasm is fading. The misleading narrative that South Africans should celebrate the mere existence of a fictional government of national unity is giving way to the reality that the country is governed by a grand coalition. This means governance remains sluggish and major macro-planning problems persist.
The most significant concern in conversations I’ve had is that South Africa’s leadership does not fully grasp the extent of state collapse. Many fear the country is entering a prolonged crisis with no clear leadership vision. Two major concerns consistently raised are personal safety (crime) and the continued unemployment crisis, where the government remains notably absent. While my discussions do not constitute a national survey, the crisis of confidence in leadership is now so self-evident that debating whether the grand coalition exists is irrelevant.
The term “irrelevant” might sound harsh, but the broader point remains. The grand coalition has yet to demonstrate the discipline, vision and coherence needed to address the two pressing issues — crime and unemployment — that dominated conversations during the holidays and ahead of the 2025 Sona. While no one expected miracles in overturning the ANC’s self-induced macroeconomic and political crises of the past 15 years, there was an expectation of a different approach to governance. This is why I believe 2025 will be characterised as the evolving interregnum moment.
A global interregnum moment
Further proof that 2025 is an interregnum moment lies in the state of global politics and economics. Leaders such as President Emmanuel Macron (France), Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (Canada), Shigeru Ishiba (Japan), former President Yoon Suk Yeol (South Korea) and Chancellor Olaf Scholz (Germany) face similar challenges to that of President Cyril Ramaphosa. They recognise the problems but lack the necessary statecraft to navigate the current era.
Corporate institutions are also struggling to define their operations in this uncertain period. Business leaders like Oliver Blume (VW), Bob Iger (Disney), Simon Baloyi (Sasol) and Fabricio Bloisi (Naspers) are grappling with how to adapt to a rapidly shifting economic landscape.
Compounding this uncertainty is the return of US President Donald Trump to the global political stage and his renewed experimentation with tariffs. Meanwhile, the EU's economic powerhouses, Germany and France, are facing economic stagnation and political fragmentation. These developments underscore why the interregnum moment is likely to persist for the foreseeable future.
Breaking the interregnum moment
Despite the prevailing uncertainty, I do not believe the interregnum moment will last indefinitely. South Africa’s government and broader society can and must break out of it. This can be achieved through three key interventions:
- Governance and institutional reform:
- A significant reduction in the number of municipalities, from the 257 metropolitan, district and local municipalities to fewer than 100.
- A streamlined national government with fewer ministries to improve efficiency and co-ordination.
- Targeted economic interventions:
- Collaboration between government, policymakers, higher education institutions and businesses to develop a detailed post-recovery economic plan.
- Focus areas should include reversing rural decline, re-industrialising with critical raw minerals and reforming state-owned enterprises to drive regional economic growth.
- This approach should be pragmatic and funded, with the government acting as a facilitator rather than the sole driver of change.
- Acknowledging the interregnum moment:
- If the 2025 Sona does not recognise the challenges of the interregnum moment or propose concrete interventions, it will signal continued stagnation for South Africa’s future.
The interregnum moment is not unique to South Africa — it is a global phenomenon affecting both political and corporate leadership. However, South Africa has a choice: remain trapped in this moment or take decisive steps to break free. Meaningful governance reform, targeted economic interventions and an honest acknowledgment of the crisis are essential to navigating beyond this period of uncertainty. The path forward requires bold leadership, a clear vision and a willingness to implement structural changes that will define South Africa’s future beyond 2025.
• TK Pooe is a public policy specialist at the Wits School of Governance and writes in his personal capacity.
For opinion and analysis consideration, e-mail Opinions@timeslive.co.za
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