JUSTICE MALALA | A colossal global shift is near — SA needs to thinks about its next move very carefully

They are not dancing in the streets in Moscow. Yet. 

They are, however, definitely popping the champagne in the Kremlin and elsewhere in the halls of power in the vast state of Russia. For them, the one great obstacle to a world where the powerful do as they please, where a major power can invade a smaller country as Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, has been removed. 

The US , which was once ostensibly the main defender and upholder of an open and rules-based international order, on Friday comprehensively showed the world that it has abandoned those lofty ideals. In front of the world’s cameras, US President Donald Trump and his deputy JD Vance berated and attempted to humiliate Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, kicked him out of the White House, and all but said they don’t care about world order. As Trump put it, he doesn’t care about the world’s security, he just wants a deal with Russian autocrat President Vladimir Putin to be done. 

Friday’s events are crucial for every political leader across the globe to understand in very stark terms: things have changed fundamentally. The US under Trump will no longer speak of or subscribe to concepts such as respect for country’s sovereignty or solidarity among democratic states. Instead, the US now does what South Africa once did: it lies in the same bed with the aggressor, Russia, while telling the victim (Ukraine) that they brought it on themselves. 

The US is doing what Trump promised in his election campaign: America First. What happens to the rest, whether it’s the besieged of Ukraine or the starving of Sudan, does not matter any more. 

We are now at the end of an era and the beginning of a colossal global shift. A new age is upon us and, for South Africa, it is an age in which the values the country espouses are anathema to Trump and those around him. 

The lessons and possible consequences for South Africa are huge. As President Cyril Ramaphosa keeps trying to place calls to Trump and his cabinet secretaries to have civilised, diplomatic, talks about differences over the alleged ill-treatment of Afrikaners, land restitution, and all the other issues that Trump has raised in his ill-informed and incoherent manner, Ramaphosa may want to reflect on whether it’s possible to have a meaningful conversation with a Trump who has already made up his mind about South Africa. As we saw with the way the executive orders punishing South Africa were done, as we saw with the social media posts from Trump shouting at South Africa and its leaders, this is already a one-way conversation. 

The Trump administration shouts, bullies, does not consult and uses its immense power to punish even when no punishment is merited. What happened to Zelensky on Friday is what happened to South Africa in the first two weeks of the Trump presidency. Out of the blue, Trump posted on his social media app Truth Social: “South Africa is confiscating land and treating certain classes of people VERY BADLY.”

A leader who was prepared to listen would have dispatched his diplomats to develop a position on the issue, speak to South Africa and warn it of eventual action, consult other nations and then act. Trump instead bullied his way through, posting further: “I will be cutting off all future funding to South Africa until a full investigation of this situation has been completed!” 

And so this assessment leads us to one conclusion: no matter what South Africa does, no matter how many phone calls are made from Mahlamba Ndlopfu to the White House, no matter how many times Ronald Lamola reaches out to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the outlook is bleak for US-South Africa trade and diplomatic relations. 

The Trump administration has made no secret about who it listens to on matters South Africa. The billionaire Elon Musk, AfriForum, Solidarity and others are getting the audience that South Africa’s elected leaders and diplomats are not getting. While Lamola and Ramaphosa have been snubbed, AfriForum leaders were in the White House last week. What that means is that there is already an anticipated outcome to these issues from the Trump administration. Just as Trump and Vance already have their own deal hammered out for Zelensky to accept and sign, they already have their own deal for Ramaphosa to agree to. 

South Africa can try to speak to the US. It should know, however, that it will now be speaking to leaders who believe in raw power and who are the opposite of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. If a meeting happens, Ramaphosa will be attending to be lectured, scolded, humiliated and threatened as has already happened via Truth Social. 

Which means South Africa had better be thinking about its next moves, its global alliances and positioning, very carefully. 

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