ONKGOPOTSE JJ TABANE | He who paid the piper returns for his tune

Despite too much protestation by President Cyril Ramaphosa over the weekend, the ANC is in deep consultation with the private sector to keep the Government of National Unity (GNU) intact.

The DA has called on business leaders to speak to the ANC to keep the political ship afloat as the writing seems to be on the wall if what the minister of finance said after the fiscal framework vote is anything to go by: those who opposed the budget cannot possibly be expected to implement it. A clear rebuff at the DA’s continued presence in the government whose budget they did not support. 

Ironically, the DA had every opportunity to carve out a strategic position — much like ActionSA, which succeeded in pushing the ANC to abandon its misguided VAT increase. The DA, however, failed to take advantage of numerous cabinet meetings to do so. There is of course a theory that the ANC has pulled the wool over the eyes of ActionSA only to return with no alternative but to implement the 0.5 percentage-point VAT increase.

The postponement of the special NEC meeting is the first sign that those defending the status quo are gaining ground

Within both the DA and the ANC there is growing frustration with the GNU as a genuine power-sharing arrangement that acknowledges the 2024 results. The DA believes it is increasingly failing to push back against ANC policies as contained in different controversial legislative pieces.

On the ANC side, one minister recently confessed that engaging with the DA in government corridors feels like a merry-go-round — an exercise in futility. In a strange way it seems like the ANC went into the arrangement not anticipating too much pushback from the DA and the DA was hoping its presence would automatically get the ANC to rethink its radical policies on land, National Health Insurance (NHI) and education.

This friction could have been predicted, given the polarised positions that the coalition partners hold on key legislation such as the Basic Education Laws Amendment (Bela) Bill, the NHI and compensation reform. These three pieces of legislation could determine the survival — or collapse — of the GNU. When it was previously suggested that the DA is anti-transformation, some dismissed it as hyperbole. But the first nine months of the GNU have proved otherwise. What’s surprising, however, is the ANC’s resolve to stand firm on this transformative legislation.

This political “arranged marriage” was initially welcomed by the markets, which have not opposed the passing — or seemingly, the implementation — of these laws. Interestingly, these same markets have remained silent during the budget deadlock that has dragged on since February 19. One wonders what, if anything, they will offer the ANC to ensure the DA remains in the GNU. Perhaps they don’t need to offer anything at all — after all, they have bankrolled the ANC before. With half-a-billion rand reportedly spent on Ramaphosa’s campaign, it is no exaggeration to say that capital propped him up. This explains his protest over the weekend. Almost trying too hard to say he won’t be influenced by he who has paid the piper. 

This current deadlock reminds one of the time capital overruled Zuma’s appointment of Des van Rooyen. Many in the ANC were unbothered then — but what capital did to Zuma, it may now do to Ramaphosa.

Once again, the eternal question rears its head: will a decision please “The People” or “The Capital”? It’s not a simple choice — but history suggests the ANC will once again err on the side of capital.

The dominant faction within the ANC today appears more focused on protecting both capital and corruption. This faction is largely responsible for the current state of affairs, and its dismantling would be seen as a blow to that dominance. The postponement of the special NEC meeting is the first sign that those defending the status quo are gaining ground. But by the time you read this piece a smoke signal disproving this would have leaked from the NWC meeting.

This would make the broader NEC as helpless as the general public until the meeting sits with polarised views having been adequately lobbied and a new deal in place and if business has its way such will hold the fractured relationship together even if it is merely to hold up the Davos appearances together — appearances of a follow-up miracle after the 1994 miracle of avoiding the post-Apartheid bloodbath.

Time will tell whether there is courage left to return to something resembling a revolution — one that places the people at the centre of transformation. Quite frankly, I am not holding my breath.

• Prof JJ Tabane is professor of media studies at the University of Botswana and editor of Leadership and BBQ magazines

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