Among countries that report crime statistics, Jamaica pips South Africa as the murder capital of the world. That is according to the UN Office on Drugs and Crime, which distinguishes “intentional homicides” from conflict- and terrorism-related deaths.
One may question such distinctions in areas of conflict, but so defined South Africa has the second-highest intentional homicide rate at 45 per 100,000 people. This country, which has 0.75% of the world’s population, accounts for 6% of its murders.
Where do most murders happen? Crime statistics show the police stations reporting high murder rates are almost all in townships and informal settlements. The rest are in inner cities. And 30% of deaths happen in the home of the perpetrator or victim.
When do most murders occur? We don’t have recent information, but studies from 2016 show half of all homicides happen over weekends. We also know that murders peak on Saturdays and Sundays between midnight and 4am.
Who gets killed? In two-thirds (63%) of male homicide cases where the perpetrator was identified, the victim knew that person, while half (52.3%) of all femicide victims were the murderers’ partners.
So, we know where and when murders happen and who gets killed. The question is why? Robberies and gang violence constitute over a third of homicide deaths, but the main spark for murder is argument among acquaintances, friends and family. Which begs the question of what fuels it. What turns a minor dispute into a lethal explosion?
Residents of crime-ridden communities will tell you: It’s the excessive consumption of alcohol. In a review of male homicides, alcohol use by the perpetrator was reported in 41% of murders by family members and 50% by acquaintances. In the Western Cape, 45% of all homicide victims had a blood-alcohol content exceeding 0.05g/dl — indicating they consumed at least three or four drinks in their final hours of life.
The WHO global status report on alcohol and health and treatment of substance use disorders concludes that 43% of South African adults are heavy drinkers, consuming most of the 400-million litres of pure ethanol drunk each year.
This is why the article titled “Let liquor boost township economies” is so distasteful. It argues for less regulation over liquor outlets in exactly those communities where liquor consumption is out of control. Heavy drinking causes four-and-a-half times as many deaths in poorer communities than in wealthier ones, thanks to an apartheid system that pushed liquor sales to finance the bantustans and an industry that continues to flood townships with cheap alcohol.
The liquor industry’s constant refrain is that it contributes substantially to jobs, tourism and taxes. True, when alcohol is drunk in moderation — one or two glasses a day. However, when people drink heavily, everyone but the alcohol industry loses out. Industry accrues profit linearly — carton by carton — but the cost curve for alcohol-related violence, absenteeism and illness increases exponentially.
For instance, the later liquor outlets stay open the more the harm — and the rate of harm increases fractionally with every extra minute. That is why, over a 20-year period, closing liquor outlets at midnight would prevent 10-15 times as many injuries and deaths as a closing time just two hours later. Similarly, the risk of death in a crash where the driver’s blood alcohol level is 0.02% is twice that of 0.00%, but seven to 10 times greater at 0.05%.
Heavy drinking is defined as five or more units of alcohol on any occasion in the past month. That’s five beers, 3½ glasses of wine or five spirit tots downed in one evening. The WHO global status report on alcohol and health and treatment of substance use disorders concludes that 43% of South African adults are heavy drinkers, consuming most of the 400-million litres of pure ethanol drunk each year.
Public health researchers have quantified the net cost of the liquor industry at 10-12% of GDP. Industry-aligned researchers counter with an estimated net benefit of 1.2% of GDP. The numbers swing wildly between the two, pushing the balance sheet deeply into the red or firmly into the black. The swing factor is the assumed price of a statistical life, which is used to gauge the indirect costs of alcohol. Based on surveys of society’s willingness to pay, one side assigns a high value to life (~R8.5m); the other prices it far lower, based on what the health system can afford to pay (~R1.5m).
It's a no-win argument that can divert attention from the critical imperative of tackling heavy drinking. Key strategies include minimum unit pricing to prevent the sale of cheap liquor, reining in municipalities that flout the national norms and standards for liquor trading hours, and curtailing liquor advertising.
Global health experts have concluded that no level of alcohol is safe for you, as your risk of cancer increases from the first glass onwards. Still, it could be argued that moderate drinking is good for the economy. Heavy drinking is not and reducing it would unlock social and economic windfalls for South Africa.
• Harrison is the CEO of the DG Murray Trust.
For opinion and analysis consideration, e-mail Opinions@timeslive.co.za
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