PALI LEHOHLA | We are governed by rainmakers who toy with lightning

At the dawn of democracy, there is no doubt that the policy announcements on education, health, water and electrification showed immediate results both in the census of 1996 and 2001 and the Community Survey of 2006. Census 2011 marked the tail end of policy announcements that were acted upon. This period was marked by heightened scenario building and addressing negative tendencies that appeared in the worst case scenarios.

A misconception, however, has often been repeated, accompanied by uninformed thinking by many, that the ANC has good policies. And the lamentations following these exaltations have been that the ruling party is poor at implementation. This has been repeated so many times that these have become make-believe hallucinations. I have argued differently for the longest time against this make-believe policy straw man. My refrain has been I do not think those who repeat this myth understand what policy means. If by policy we mean exaltations and intentions, that’s like reading scripture and feeling good about the verse. But if by policy we mean future-proofing of intentions and exaltations, then the ANC would not score 30% in my book.

Even to this day the National Development Plan has remained that scripture referenced often to tap into the budget. It is not surprising therefore that the ANC lost the battle on the VAT debate because it followed the strong-arm tactics of the Treasury to push to the end and use deadlines, not economic reasoning, as the basis for decisions.

Whichever way you look at it, therefore, the fault-prone policy actions of this once-mighty ANC suggest it never rains but pours in this latter-day porous stadium of thoughtlessness. You are no doubt bound to ask: “Who is the economic policy guru in this once upon a time glorious movement?”

Speaking of rain, I am reminded of great traditional healers in my village who would redirect hail away from the fields. The game would be contested by other traditional healers from other villages. In full regalia of skins of the most feared animals , the traditional healer would use his spear to direct lightening and hail away from the fields of my village. Speaking in tongues he would say: “This hail and lightning should go to the lands of AmaNdebele.”

It used to be quite a spectacle to see these lone giants fighting forces of nature and science. The spear, a sharp conductor, ran the risk of attracting lightning and devouring these traditional healers. At times, the traditional healers would have an impact, but at others the hail and lightning would come down with devastating effects on the crops.

Finance minister Enoch Godongwana and his train of Treasury officials came out like the traditional healer from my village of Qibing to stop those opposing the introduction of VAT. But equally in their false claims of caring for the poor, the DA’s traditional healer came swinging in her leopard skins and spears. And she won. If the DA were so pro-poor, why have they failed to support NHI and Bela bills, which by all accounts are the hallmarks of black and the poor’s struggle.

The crocodile tears of VAT are about placing a buffer from suggesting tax on property, wealth and corporate tax. About 73% of the population of whites and only 13.7% of blacks would be liable for all these taxes. As such the tax is likely to alienate their electorate. Thus placing the black poor as a buffer zone guarantees that this topic will never be broached and the ANC, by raising the wrong tax through which the DA used the black poor as the first shield to their 73% citadel that would attract wealth, property and income tax, came out a useful idiot.

So that this matter should not be revisited, the DA medicine woman ensured that the VAT increase is taken to court and adjudicated to put fear of lightning in the ANC. The Johnny come lately ANC, trying to save face especially when the polls showed that the ANC was be lower than the DA, took the matter to smaller parties and haplessly tried to claim a pyrrhic victory from the DA, which successfully outmanoeuvred it at its own constituency of the 87% poor and black. So who is fooling who here?

If an ANC minister caused the budget not to be read on the February 19, if the ANC minister caused a rift in parliament on a later date when the budget was read, if the ANC minister caused a court case to be lodged by the DA and EFF, and if the ANC minister finally decided to withdraw the VAT increase, where does accountability lie? And who pays and faces the music?

The ANC collective seems to have thrown the minister under the bus and will reconstitute him afterwards, just as they did with the closure of Komati. In the ruling party a circumlocution route seems to be the only path to accountability.

Business was quiet on the matter of VAT. It did not matter to them. They only came crying when the GNU was collapsing because it would affect their stakes of the rotting carcass. It will be interesting to see whether they remain mum on the cancellation of the VAT increase. Business has incurred costs to build the systems to allow for adjustment in VAT collection. Albeit not to the scale of Y2K preparedness, the costs to business have been significant just as they have been heavy in the flip-flopping ANC on the matter of the Just Energy Transition, which was on autopilot and no culprit was identified for cost in life and livelihoods.

We are in a strange place of medicine men who manage lightning. The gravity of the presence of these medicine men is when the end of VAT-that-never-was falls exactly after 31 years of freedom. One is bound to ask, who are these gamblers with life and livelihoods? Are we in a circus as a country?

It is said when you place a clown in a palace, the palace becomes a circus. The gutted house of democracy, the Just Energy Transition and VAT are just current evidence of the clown and the circus the country has become. The new hope is that the G20 will rebuild the palace and transform its circus status. It will not. Will the National Dialogue do the trick? I doubt it will.

• Dr Pali Lehohla is a professor of practice at the University of Johannesburg, a research associate at Oxford University, and a distinguished Alumni of the University of Ghana. He is the former statistician-general of South Africa

For opinion and analysis consideration, email Opinions@timeslive.co.za