According to rule 12.6 of the ANC constitution, a person needs only to have been “a member in good standing” for “at least 10 years” before they can be nominated for election to the party’s national executive committee (NEC).
To be “a member in good standing”, one needs to ensure that their membership subscription is not in arrears of more than three months.
So yes, if indeed he has been paying his ANC membership dues for at least the last decade, billionaire businessman Patrice Motsepe is constitutionally eligible to run for the ANC presidency at the party’s next national conference scheduled for the end of 2027.
Recent ANC leadership succession tradition, however, suggests such a bid is unlikely to succeed.
Though before its banning in 1960, the ANC had a history of parachuting “outsiders” with strong public profiles, such as Dr James Sebe Moroka, into its presidency, this has not been the case since the party became legal again in 1991.
The tradition that has emerged, post the banning era, is that the party’s next president is chosen from among members of an outgoing NEC.
Thabo Mbeki had been in the NEC for years and was deputy president when he was elected to succeed Nelson Mandela. This was the same case with Jacob Zuma.
Though Cyril Ramaphosa did leave active politics in the mid-1990s to pursue business opportunities, he remained an elected member of the NEC throughout and had to be first elected deputy president in 2012 before he successfully bid to replace Zuma in 2017.
So, for the ANC, having a Motsepe emerge with no history of serving in any party structure and becoming president would be a break with the modern tradition.
But then again, desperate times do call for desperate measures and, as we all know, the ANC is in desperate need for a new leadership narrative if it is to arrest its electoral decline.
It is not for the first time that the mining mogul’s name is being floated in connection with ANC leadership. As early as 2005, Motsepe’s name was among those on a long list that were being seen as likely successors to Mbeki.
Talk within the party suggests that the Motsepe presidency idea is being floated by those in the ranks not convinced that the current deputy president, Paul Mashatile, is suitable for the job
However, back then the ANC membership didn’t seem to have much appetite for leaders with big business links and hence none of the “BEE types” made it onto the final ballot box when the national conference was finally convened in Polokwane in 2007.
Today’s South Africa, however, is totally different from the country of 2007.
The ANC no longer enjoys the unassailable dominance it used to take for granted back then, the moral high ground it used to enjoy due to its leadership of the anti-apartheid struggle has now evaporated and virtually none of its current leaders seem capable of inspiring new hope for the future among voters.
Hence some within the organisation are starting to look outside the party’s formal structures for a leader who can give them a fighting chance in the 2029 general elections.
Talk within the party suggests that the Motsepe presidency idea is being floated by those in the ranks not convinced that the current deputy president, Paul Mashatile, is suitable for the job. or that he can do better at the next polls than the 40% under Ramaphosa’s leadership in the last election.
They are also not convinced that the other supposed frontrunner, ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula, can do any better.
What they seem to be worried most about is the further damage a leadership succession race, akin to 2007 and 2017, could do to an already weakened ANC battling to retain its spot as the country’s largest political party.
They hope to sell Motsepe as a compromise candidate who would accommodate all possible factions and avoid an acrimonious conference just two years before the next election.
However, indications are that various factions are already gearing up for a contest and it would take some serious convincing for them to give in without a fight, especially to an outsider.
Moreover, there are those within the party ranks who link the party’s poor performance in the last election, as well as its general decline in popularity among its traditional constituency — the urban working class — to the fact that it is currently headed by a billionaire.
But if indeed Motsepe is interested in adding head of state to the many titles he has held over the years in the corporate sector, organised business and continental football, and wants to do that with the backing of the ANC, there could be another path.
His backers and sympathisers within the ANC can convince the party to abandon its current official position on what party ideologues call “two centres of power”. That is, it can stop insisting that the party’s president must be the ANC’s presidential candidate during the general elections.
Already this is happening at provincial and regional levels where provincial chairpersons and their regional counterparts are not guaranteed to be candidates for the premiership or mayoral posts.
That way, the party can keep to the current leadership succession tradition while fielding a presidential candidate with a better chance of winning back a highly sceptical electorate.
But does Motsepe have the appetite to go through all this trouble, just to add “state president” to the list of presidencies he has held and currently holds?
For opinion and analysis consideration, email Opinions@timeslive.co.za
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.