The South African government is going through the toughest period since the advent of our democratic dispensation. It finds itself fighting so many fires on so many fronts. The Government of National Unity was a welcome relief after the outcome of the 2024 national elections with a promise of stability. But this project, unless the tensions are managed carefully, could throw a spanner in the works and halt what is otherwise a promising arrangement.
I recently attended a global Geopolitical Summit in London organised by the Young Presidents Organisation . It was one of the best conferences on geopolitics that I have attended in a long time.
Naturally, after such a conference one asks what does all that I learnt mean for my business, country and self. In the interest of brevity, I will focus on the country. For ease of presentation, let me use Threat Analysisto assess where we are as a country.
South Africa faces five key threats that it needs to address.
The first is the weakness of our military capacity. One of the observations I made at the summit was that countries with military might have a voice. The US , China and Russia have bullied their way around because among other things, they have a strong military capacity. Israel’s military capability has meant it is no pushover regardless of views one may have for or against the state. One speaker said when you have military might, it is not taking action that others fear but rather the threat of action that compels people to want to negotiate.
Our failed Sadc “peacekeeping” mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo was due to the fact that M23, the rebel group backed by Rwanda, had a stronger military capability.
There are 35 non-international armed conflicts in Africa and this has caused enormous human suffering and has been a cause of rapid migration or illegal immigration into Europe and Southern Africa, especially South Africa. This has negatively affected the capacity of the state to adequately pay attention to its poor citizens.
There is an urgent need to professionalise the public service and to depoliticise it so it can act as an insurance against weak instability in political leadership.
Without a strong military capability and lack of intervention by America and European countries, it leaves South Africa and other African countries with the responsibility to intervene. UN peacekeeping missions rely on member states. War displaces normal civic life and commerce. Ideas like the African Free Trade Agreement are not possible if African countries are not at peace. South Africa needs a strong military to enable it to play a constructive role in commandeering rebel groups and bringing governments to order.
The second threat South Africa faces is its weak fiscal capacity as it recovers from years of the destructive Jacob Zuma presidency. South Africa’s sovereign debt has reached dangerous proportions and opens it up to manipulation by multilateral institutions and trading partners. Canada and China, due to their strong balance sheets, are able to stand up to Trump and his tariffs because they have the financial muscle to do so.
One of the worrying factors about South Africa’s budget is that most of the funds are geared towards consumption rather than growth. Apart from the budgeting process that has been challenged, a major concern is that National Treasury has little ammunition to balance the books and as a result it sought to increase VAT. South Africa is an unequal country with major developmental needs. Without the financial muscle to spur growth and implement development programmes, it risks losing its place in the G20 and thus a seat around the table of world affairs.
The National Treasury is caught between avoiding austerity measures and controlling wasteful spending. It needs to step up and address wasteful spending at national, provincial and local government.
During the summit, there was consensus that the EU had the capacity to increase spending on defence budgets by increasing debt limits and this could improve trade within the bloc. Europe has this legroom to contend with the Trump presidency. One speaker said: “there will be Nato with or without the US.” This is made possible because the EU has the financial muscle to contend with the headwinds facing them. Cutting wasteful spending will give South Africa this legroom.
The third threat South Africa faces is weak government capacity in the face of coalitions . One of the speakers at the summit was a senior UK Foreign Office official, who in the past five years has had to deal with instability in UK politics. In nine years, the UK has had four prime ministers with an average tenure of two-and-a-half years. This translated into rapid changes in government policy with each new government. However, having a strong and somewhat independent public service has assisted the UK to remain a functioning state even in the face of Brexit, which was disruptive.
At local government level in South Africa, coalition governments have wreaked havoc in communities, and this reflects a clear weakness in state capacity. Being in the real estate industry, we depend on approvals (planning permissions, government subsidies and so on) and have experienced the impact of a weak local government with no effective political leadership. Development simply grinds to a halt. There is an urgent need to professionalise the public service and to depoliticise it so it can act as an insurance against instability in political leadership.
The fourth threat that South Africa faces is high unemployment. The July 2021 riots were a stark reminder of how unsafe the country has become because of inequality and people not having jobs or sustainable livelihoods. A major factor driving high levels of crime, thus affecting tourism and hindering South Africa as an investment destination, is unemployment.
One of the key issues mentioned by a speaker at the summit was how peace in the Middle East would remain elusive unless there was shared prosperity. Unemployed young people are driven to join terrorist groups if they cannot find regular jobs.
The interventions that the government has put in place need to increase to address increasing youth unemployment. There are many opportunities that the government is not seizing to address this challenge. For example, there is a massive budget for housing and infrastructure, but focus is on spending without ensuring that the design and delivery of these activities are labour intensive.
The fifth threat South Africa faces is the potential collapse of the ANC without a viable alternative that respects constitutional democracy. The ANC is a well-behaved dominant party though it is weakening because of its internal dynamics. It accepts defeat at the polls and lawful transfer of power as it did with the formation of the GNU and in the Western Cape. Not enough credit is given to the ANC for this character of embracing the rule of law.
In the UK, the elections ushered in Keir Starmer's Labour government after many years Conservative Party rule. In the US, the Democratic Party and Republican Party regularly alternate without much meaningful fuss.
There was consensus at the summit that one of the big threats facing the world is the weakening of the institutions created after WW2 that were meant to safeguard the conduct of nations around the world. These institutions have been weakened with the result that their resolutions are of no force or effect. The United Nations has suffered a loss of credibility. The current trade wars reflect the weakening of the World Trade Organization. The conduct by China during the pandemic created a loss of credibility for the World Health Organization. Peace in the Middle East hinges on Iran being effectively monitored by the International Atomic Energy Agency to ensure it will only develop energy-related nuclear capability.
To safeguard democracy in South Africa, it is important that parties are pressed by the media and civil society to commit to the constitution and to abide by the rule of law. We have seen what happened in Myanmar, Pakistan, Brazil and Zimbabwe where the incumbent parties were replaced by unhinged military rule, authoritarian regimes or parties not willing to transfer power.
South Africa needs to prepare and look at its institutions and ensure coalitions are stable and that those taking over, should it happen, abide by the rule of law.
South Africa has great prospects, and if we address these threats we will be well on our way to sustain or regain our status as a force to be reckoned with. South Africa needs to work with African countries to seize the development opportunities that have long eluded the continent.
• Malose Kekana is the CEO of Pareto. He writes in his own capacity
For opinion and analysis consideration, email Opinions@timeslive.co.za
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