As the world teeters towards World War 3, with its epicentre being the Middle East, and as back home in South Africa those empowered to guide government policy through observation of statistics now throwing rotten eggs at particularly the Quarterly Labour Force Survey, I pen this article to remind ourselves globally and locally that statistics as a conduit of trust has helped ensure that the spectre of a war fails to arise in almost eight decades. Yet signs are clear that we face the barrel of this spectre.
In my keynote address in 2007 at the 60th Anniversary of the UN Statistical Commission (UNSC) in New York, my summary of how statistics is a conduit for building trust among people and nations was: “To understand the development of statistics in, and of the world, we need to take a historical perspective and analyse the glacial political movements of the world that are intrinsically associated or are a consequence of these political forces. An occasion such as the 60th anniversary of the UNSC provides an important opportunity for forging ahead with this analysis and the questions it raises or might raise in the future. The end of the first world war, the establishment of the League of Nations in June 1919 and the convening of the International Statistics Commission in 1920 tell an interesting tale in the history of the global development of statistics. The establishment of the UN in 1946 after the collapse of the League of Nations and the formation of the UNSC, in 1947, a year after the formation of the UN, is a critical illustration of the role statistics plays in the chain of this important trajectory.”
The milestone relating to the adoption of Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics is yet another major contribution by a quiet statistician regarding the conduct of world politics and its implications on statistics. The development of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), the call for the transformation of the UN systems of governance and statistical capacity building may not be idle coincidences of this decade. This is instructive of the fundamental link between statistics and the desire for world peace and stability, the way the world reasons, experiments and forms opinions — an aspiration for transparent representation of phenomena and thereby enhancing accountability of nations and the world. If crisis and instability in the world appear to be the midwife for statistics, and this is true, then the converse is that statistics should be crucial for world peace and enhancing the quality of governance. Yet in South African legislature and business circles some have decided to generate their own facts. “Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts,” late US senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan said.
In this regard there are 10 United Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics (UNFPOS) governing the development and sound interpretation of facts about society. These are principles that were initiated by the Economic Commission for Europe, when the Berlin Wall cracked and fell. They were meant for the incorporation of Eastern Europe to integrate in the market economy.
Ivan Fellegi, the most decorated statistician and Statistician Emeritus of Canada, led the responsibility for crafting these principles that were then adopted by the UNSC in 1994. At the time South Africa had just been welcomed into the world of nations after it was isolated because of its repugnant practices of apartheid. So crucial were the UNFPOS that they became the hallmark in the development of the Statistics Law, Act 6 of 1999 of South Africa.
At their 18th anniversary, Fellegi had this to say about the UNFPOS after Canada faltered and undermined them in their Census of 2010: “Some 20 years ago I was attending the Conference of European Statisticians. The Soviet bloc had just recently collapsed and we were all seized by the urgent need to help the so-called ‘transition countries’ to adapt to the standards and values of developed democratic countries. Someone had the brainwave of committing to paper a codification of long-held basic values that we all shared. I remember my reactions at the time: first of all, Canada certainly does not need them. More generally I thought that whatever the country, it is too bad if one has to spell out black or white these basic truths.
“However, I understood that the ‘transition countries’ did not as yet have the time to develop the broadly shared values that in developed countries have already served as the underpinnings of official statistics for decades. So I went along with the idea and actually played a role in drafting the text. The result, after its adoption by the UN, came to be known as the Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics. Little did I guess that 20 years later I will be referring to them as something to which Canada has to rededicate itself.”
These were the 10 principles:
1. Official statistics provide an indispensable element in the information system of a democratic society, serving the government, the economy and the public with data about the economic, demographic, social and environmental situation. To this end, official statistics that meet the test of practical utility are to be compiled and made available on an impartial basis by official statistical agencies to honour citizens’ entitlement to public information.
2. To retain trust in official statistics, the statistical agencies need to decide according to strictly professional considerations, including scientific principles and professional ethics, on the methods and procedures for the collection, processing, storage and presentation of statistical data.
3. To facilitate a correct interpretation of the data, the statistical agencies are to present information according to scientific standards on the sources, methods and procedures of the statistics.
4. The statistical agencies are entitled to comment on erroneous interpretation and misuse of statistics.
5. Data for statistical purposes may be drawn from all types of sources, be they statistical surveys or administrative records. Statistical agencies are to choose the source with regard to quality, timeliness, costs and the burden on respondents.
6. Individual data collected by statistical agencies for statistical compilation, whether they refer to natural or legal people, are to be strictly confidential and used exclusively for statistical purposes.
7. The laws, regulations and measures under which the statistical systems operate are to be made public.
8. Co-ordination among statistical agencies within countries is essential to achieve consistency and efficiency in the statistical system.
9. The use by statistical agencies in each country of international concepts, classifications and methods promotes the consistency and efficiency of statistical systems at all official levels.
10. Bilateral and multilateral co-operation in statistics contributes to the improvement of systems of official statistics in all countries.
Twenty years later these principles were adopted as the global law by the General Assembly in 2014. I was privileged as one of the veterans of the UNSC to deliver a rendition from a South African perspective upon their adoption by the General Assembly in New York. It was indeed a proud moment to represent my country and appreciate the contribution of the world in guiding and supporting South Africa out of pariah status into a family of nations at the 20th anniversary of these principles being contemplated and developed over two decades. But sadly, dare I say, I feel very much like Fellegi, when Gerrie Fourie of Capitec has a new anti-statistics cult that involves those who are supposed to pledge loyalty to UNFPOS by virtue of being ministers in the government of the day. So much scientific work of building a fortress of trusted numbers in Stats SA has been undertaken to be rubbished by the opinionated.
Regarding South Africa's QLFS, a comprehensive review was undertaken following on the mission report of 2005, whose terms of reference were contained in the Report of the Labour Force Statistics Evaluation Mission to South Africa March 15-31, 2005:
1. The expert should review the conceptual and operational aspects of the South African labour force survey, including assessing whether informal employment arrangements are being adequately captured in the South African statistics.
2. The expert should advise on whether, based on Latin American experience, best practice is being followed by South Africa in its labour force survey.
3. In light of (1) and (2), advise on whether the published unemployment levels and rates seem plausible with the levels and rates observed elsewhere in countries with similar labour market patterns.
4. Advise on whether, given the data available, they are being presented in the best possible way to give insights into labour market circumstances in South Africa.
5. Advise on improvements to the labour force survey and/or the introduction of supplementary instruments, to provide for more accurate and comprehensive employment statistics, particularly in the informal sector.
The terms of reference were implemented appropriately and two substantive methodology documents were produced, namely one on sample design and the other on questionnaire content. No-one in politics or business have their methodologies, but as a civilised society we all abide by statistical and survey methods that statisticians have developed, peer reviewed and implemented.
When you hear a random businessman talk on a survey methodology or a politician dabbling in such without abiding by the principles that govern the subject, when these honourables are not able to deliver peer reviewed material but rather village and business anecdotes you quickly remember that Harry Truman, the World War 2 president of the US, said this about his career choices: “My choice early in life was either to be a piano player in a whorehouse or a politician. And to tell the truth, there’s hardly any difference.”
Also, you are cautioned by the then deputy president of South Africa, Cyril Ramaphosa, who said: “At times parliamentary debates bear no difference from those of a beer hall.” Though data is collected on piano players, whorehouses, parliament and beer halls it does not turn the carefully undertaken methodological designs into these entities.
Dr Pali Lehohla is a professor of practice at the University of Johannesburg, a research associate at Oxford University, a board member of Institute for Economic Justice at Wits and a distinguished Alumni of the University of Ghana. He is the former statistician-general of South Africa
For opinion and analysis consideration, email opinions@timeslive.co.za
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.