The Brics trade bloc’s expansion, Russia’s war on Ukraine, Iran’s conflict with Israel and the US, and US President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs against members of the group. Then the frantic scramble by Brics members affected by the US tariffs to negotiate agreements with the US before an August 1 Trump deadline for countries to propose compromises or risk the continuation of the tariffs.
These have left Brics less cohesive.
Trump’s trade tariffs alone, and warnings of retaliation against Brics countries, are threatening that cohesion. Many Brics members’ individual responses have avoided clashing with the US administration.
The original Brics — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — was expanded in 2024 to 10 countries, including Indonesia, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). It has associated members including Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Nigeria, Thailand, Uganda, Uzbekistan and Vietnam.
The Brics members have vastly different political and economic systems, and divergent foreign-policy priorities. The Brics is a trade group, not a political alliance. The members share the belief that global political, financial and cultural power are concentrated in the West and that global power should be shared between developing and developed countries to reflect the multipolar world.
Though Trump is upending the global order with his sweeping tariffs, and undermining the US role as the global leader, Brics’ attempt to offer alternative global leadership to the US is undermined by its two largest members’, China and Russia’s, own imperialist tendencies. Russia has invaded Ukraine, and China is threatening to take over Taiwan, even though the island democracy does not want to be part of mainland China. These aggressive behaviours of both China and Russia against other nations undermine the cohesion of Brics.
China President Xi Jinping did not attend the 17th Brics Summit in Brazil's Rio de Janeiro. This is the first time since he assumed power in China in 2012 that he did not attend a Brics Summit. Given that China has positioned itself as the global alternative to US power, with Brics as a key institution to achieve that goal, China’s absence as the biggest economy in Brics and the world’s second largest economy has been interpreted by some observers as China not viewing Brics as its top foreign policy priority any more; or alternatively, that the expanding Brics grouping makes it even harder for China to push through its agenda.
Russian President Vladimir Putin was not attending in person because he is on the wanted list of the International Criminal Court (ICC) for invading Ukraine in 2022. As a signatory to the Rome Statute, Brazil is expected to enforce the ICC arrest warrant for Putin.
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva previously condemned the violation of Ukraine's territorial integrity by Russia and called for mediation to end the war.
The group has widely divergent economic and political interests. The expanded Brics grouping has now made agreements more difficult. Furthermore, internal divisions between the Brics have widened. New Brics member Iran is in a conflict with both Israel and the US. Russia is in a conflict with Ukraine. Associate member Cuba is in a long-standing standoff with the US.
Iran wanted a strong statement from the Brics on Israel’s conflict in the Gaza and its attacks on Iran. Brazil was careful not to attack the US over its support for Israel and the US and Israel’s attack on Iran.
Brazil has focused its foreign policy on advancing climate change goals. However, the new Brics members such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia, the big oil producers, are vehemently opposed to reducing carbon emissions. Russia, also a big oil and gas producer, is also opposed to Brazil-style global reduction of carbon emissions.
Brazil has focused its foreign policy on advancing climate change goals. However, the new Brics members such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia, the big oil producers, are vehemently opposed to reducing carbon emissions. Russia, also a big oil and gas producer, is also opposed to Brazil-style global reduction of carbon emissions.
China and Russia have strongly pushed for a Brics common currency to counter the US dollar. However, India has opposed that.
Indian PM Narendra Modi at the Brics Summit slammed China for its stranglehold on rare earths. He warned China must stop “weaponising” rare earths. China has strategically restricted the export of these vital metals. Beijing in April, in revenge of the US tariffs, restricted exports of rare earth and magnet exports, hitting global supply chains. India and other developed and emerging markets have scrambled to diversify their dependence on China and to find alternative sources for rare earths.
The Financial Times this week reported that China's weaponisation of rare earths is in itself a new kind of trade war. China produces 90% of rare-earth magnets used worldwide. China's export restrictions brought parts of the global auto supply chain to a halt and Trump to the negotiating table.
In a Truth Social post last Sunday, Trump said the US would impose an extra 10% tariff on “any country aligning themselves with the anti-American policies of Brics” with “no exceptions”.
Earlier this year, Trump threatened a “100% tariff” on “hostile” Brics countries who support a common currency to rival the US dollar. Brazil’s Lula da Silva proposed a common Brics currency in 2023. The Brics Summit steered clear of engaging on a Brics currency, given Trump’s threats, but focused on improving trade and financing between members using their domestic currencies as part of a cross-border payments initiative between member countries.
Many Brics members are now scrambling to strike compromise trade deals with the US. The US on Monday tightened the pressure of trade allies and opponents when Trump sent letters to heads of several countries, informing them of a new tariff rate of up to 40%. Trump on Monday signed an executive action to extend the date for all “reciprocal” tariffs, giving countries, except China, an extension until August 1, after an initial deadline of July 9.
Trump had granted a 90-day pause in April, which lasted until July 9, to give countries time to negotiate trade deals with the US. South Africa and Indonesia are the two Brics countries that received letters from Trump. The US has slapped a 30% tariff on South African products. President Cyril Ramaphosa said diplomatic efforts would continue and urged local businesses to accelerate their diversification efforts.
Brazil as host of the Brics meeting tried to at all times project a midway point between divergent members, and a cautious stance towards the US. At the end of the meeting, Brics leaders released a joint declaration expressing “serious concerns” about the “rise of unilateral tariff and non-tariff measures” — veiled, rather than direct, criticisms of the Trump administration’s sweeping tariffs that have upended the global economy. The Brics statement criticised US and Israeli bombardments of Iran in June, calling them a “blatant breach of international law”.
The Brics statement called for the creation of a Palestinian state. The Brics group stated their support for UNRWA, the UN aid agency for Palestinian refugees, which has been banned by Israel. The Brics groups also condemned the Pahalgam terrorism attack in India-administered Kashmir, in April, in which gunmen killed 26 civilians. The Brics statement did not blame Pakistan, which India accused of supporting the attackers. India and Pakistan fought a four-day war in May after Indian strikes inside Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Pakistan has denied involvement in the Pahalgam attack.
The Brics’ joint declaration was silent on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Brazil focused the Brics Summit on its future organisation of the climate change talks. It used the summit as a launch-pad for its leadership of climate negotiations to protect the environment at the November’s COP 30 climate talks in Belem, Brazil.
Despite Lula da Silva’s strenuous attempt to ensure the Brics summit was not seen as an attack on the US administration, Trump after the Brics meeting slapped Brazil, Latin America's largest economy, with 50% tariffs on exports to US. Lula da Silva said his country would reciprocate.
After the threat by Trump to punish Brics countries that implement “anti-American” policies, and the subsequent 50% tariffs on Brazil, South Africa is now in real danger of being caught in the crossfire of Trump’s anti-Brics war. South Africa’s economy is the weakest among the original core Brics countries — and it cannot, like Brazil, respond with “reciprocity”.
• William Gumede is professor of practice, School of Governance, University of the Witwatersrand, and author of South Africa in Brics (Tafelberg)
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