EDITORIAL | Why are we being told about the risk of a coup in SA?

No recent attempts have been made to overthrow the government, but that does not mean people are not plotting a coup d'état in South Africa.

But fear not citizens, the country is secure.

What are we to make of this curious nugget of information shared by minister in the presidency Khumbudzo Ntshavheni during Tuesday's briefing on the redacted version of the country's national security strategy for 2024-28?

Answering questions about threats to national security, the minister said there were risks, which did not always materialise. Such risks had to be identified so authorities could act against them.

Then came a curveball: “One of the risks is the risk of a coup d’état. There is a potential risk of a coup d’état. We have identified it and put measures [in place] to mitigate against it.” 

It was a startling admission, reported sister publication Business Day, for the presidency to publicly air the risk of a coup in South Africa.

Asked if such a risk was recently identified, the minister gave this explanation: “In the last few days or the last few weeks, there has not been anyone attempting to do a coup in South Africa. Not that there are not people planning. There are, but we are continuously monitoring them and making sure that we deal with those.”

Particularly curious was the timing of the minister’s comments — the nation is on tenterhooks over damning allegations by KwaZulu-Natal police commissioner Lt-Gen Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi about corruption in the justice system and ranks of police allegedly stretching all the way to the office of police minister Senzo Mchunu, now on special leave.

It was a surprising admission. Intelligence gathering, by its very nature, is a clandestine affair involving electronic and human surveillance, data analysis, risk assessments and reports to law enforcement authorities to act on the information. The idea is to quietly gather enough credible information to neutralise the threat.

It's hard to imagine an intelligence agency warning coup-plotters. “We're watching you.” Unless it's an act of disinformation.

Particularly curious was the timing of the minister’s comments — the nation is on tenterhooks over damning allegations by KwaZulu-Natal police commissioner Lt-Gen Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi about corruption in the justice system and ranks of police allegedly stretching all the way to the office of police minister Senzo Mchunu, now on special leave.

Also implicated and placed on leave is deputy national police commissioner for crime detection Lt-Gen Shadrack Sibiya. A corruption drama is also unfolding within the ranks of police crime intelligence.

The bombshell allegations, and the commission of inquiry appointed to get to the bottom of the rot, have the potential to open an ugly can of worms. At the same time, threats are widely circulating on social media in a “hands off Mkhwanazi” campaign warning of social unrest akin to the July 2021 riots — should action be taken against him for blowing the whistle on corruption.

There are many other so-called risks that could destabilise the country, including unrest over collapsing infrastructure and failed service delivery, mass unemployment and the underperforming economy, political infighting and killings, powerful international criminal syndicates and even potential interference by foreign governments due to the disintegration of the post-war international order.

The question then is, who are the so-called coup plotters alluded to by Ntshavheni? Who was her message directed at?

It comes in the context of President Cyril Ramaphosa taking flak for his seemingly softly-softly approach to dealing swiftly and decisively against corruption. Was the message maybe an attempt to allay fears that the president is losing control of the country as one scandal after the other bursts into the public domain?

Why else share the information that appears to have sowed confusion and raised more questions than answers? Was the plot an internal or external threat? Are any arrests in the pipeline? Have any arrests been made?

We trust more light will be shone into this dark corner in the coming weeks and months. If there is a credible coup plot, the orchestrators must be rounded up, arrested and prosecuted to the full extent of the law.