JUSTICE MALALA | Why we should be extremely cautious of politicians making threats and whining

Sometimes, in this game of reading the tea leaves and trying to make sense of our disordered world and South Africa’s politics, you can miss a moment. I missed one a month ago, and it got me thinking. 

When President Cyril Ramaphosa did the extraordinary six weeks ago and fired somebody — something most of us had given up on ever seeing him do without hiding the firing with some or other excuse — I was one of very many who said that his axing of the DA’s Andrew Whitfield would lead to a crisis and possibly the collapse of the Government of National Unity. 

That assertion was made because, after Ramaphosa’s decision to axe Whitfield from the deputy trade and industry minister’s position, DA leader John Steenhuisen gave Ramaphosa 48 hours to take similar action against three of his ANC cabinet ministers or face “grave consequences”. 

Steenhuisen was correct to be apoplectic. Two ministers in Ramaphosa’s cabinet were that week facing serious allegations of corruption and had blatantly lied to parliament. They stayed — and continue to stay — in office. Whitfield, on the other hand, had dutifully asked for permission to travel from the president and had been ignored. Other ministers have asked for permission to travel and received answers from the president within a day or two. 

Whitfield went on the trip, realised his mistake afterwards, and apologised. He was fired anyway. The corruption-accused were kept on. You can see the sheer hypocrisy of Ramaphosa in this: he is a stickler for the rules when dealing with cabinet members from the opposition, and lackadaisical when ANC members are implicated in serious corruption and blatantly lying to parliament. 

Another reason for believing that the GNU was in trouble was because, when Steenhuisen issued his ultimatum, I knew that it would be extremely difficult for him to extricate his party from the corner such an ultimatum painted him into with any type of dignity intact. 

The situation was worsened by the damage from the ANC’s failure to get the DA’s support for the adoption of the initial two iterations of the budget. Since March the ANC had been “playing away from [the coalition] home” by flirting with parties outside the GNU and publicly expressing confidence that it can cobble together a working majority with alternative partners. Finally, Ramaphosa and Deputy President Paul Mashatile had repeatedly said that by rejecting the budget (ironically also rejected by ANC cabinet members for its VAT hike) the DA had “defined itself outside of the GNU”.

So at the end of June, it was almost a fait accompli that the DA would leave the GNU when Ramaphosa refused to change course and reinstate Whitfield or fire his corruption-accused cabinet members. How could the DA return to the GNU with any kind of integrity after its threats? The only “grave consequences” that came out of those threats was the DA returning to the GNU with its tail between its legs.

The country has not collapsed. The government continues to function. There is plenty of volatility and uncertainty, but like old rocker Rod Stewart said, we are still sailing these stormy seas

It had gambled against Ramaphosa and lost. 

So, after a year of monthly scares that the GNU would collapse, this one showed that South Africans in general and the business community has had enough of the volatility and chaos of the political merry-go-round. Even as the DA threatened its departure, the markets stayed calm, the rand stayed steady, and business continued as normal on the Monday after Steenhuisen’s ultimatum came and went. 

The country has not collapsed. The government continues to function. There is plenty of volatility and uncertainty, but like old rocker Rod Stewart said, we are still sailing these stormy seas. 

What are the lessons here? The GNU will face very many troubles in the short to medium term. In the long term (the next four years) it will certainly collapse. What South Africans, the business community and the markets might have taught us in the week of Whitfield’s sacking is that sometimes we have to ignore the hysterical noises politicians make and watch what is happening below the surface. 

The GNU plods along, not an A+ student but not an F student either. Collapse and crisis will come, but it’s not happening just yet. In the meantime, the hard work of building businesses and making them realistic continues. Politicians, heading into local elections in late 2026, are not guaranteed to help (they will be too busy grandstanding), but should be encouraged to do so by those who can. 

Major political developments globally continue to build up. South Africa’s continued fractious relationship with the US, characterised by unwarranted and ignorant attacks on South Africa and the misguided visits by disgruntled South African groupings to Washington, will harm trade. They have also injected harmful uncertainty into the trade and diplomatic environment. I believe this is a very serious area of uncertainty into the future. 

But for now, I am going to be extremely cautious of politicians making threats and whining. The truth is not in the extremes. It is somewhere in the middle.