LUCKY MATHEBULA | The recalibration of the majority: it’s not the size that matters

Smaller political parties, with the potential to earn between 10% and 15% of the vote, are set to play a crucial role in shaping the new South African governing majority in all spheres of government in the not-too-distant future at the 257 municipalities.

Those with 20% and above will have the power to influence the cadence of coalition arrangements, empowering them to shape the future of South Africa's political landscape. The era of one dominant political party is fast becoming history.

Unless there are drastic institutional changes in the ANC, which has been the historical dominant majority party for the past 30 years, the projections of it polling below 40% overall in the 2026 local government elections and below 30% in the national and provincial elections are not far-fetched. Yet for that not to happen, something else must come first: recognition that the glory days of the past three decades can only be resurrected by its commitment to be a party of South Africans, not its members. 

Consolidating a multiparty democratic order with diffuse nodes of influence would require political parties to raise a personality to hold these nodes together. It is no secret that the GNU, at its establishment and arguably to date, is held together by a consensus on President Cyril Ramaphosa as the personality around whom everyone wants to pivot. The fragility of the GNU is centred on the tolerance, accommodation and acceptance of Ramaphosa’s unique consensus-seeking leadership style. 

The current coalition arrangements are based on the consensus of a nonracial establishment deep in the endeavour to create political stability that does not disrupt the post-1996 status quo or constitutional order. Political parties in parliament and wannabes outside the system will henceforth be beholden to the personalities they proffer as a leadership value proposition to the nation.

Dysfunctions in government have been successfully made a party brand issue to the point where party leaders have become separable from the parties they lead.

Anyone harbouring ambitions of being president of the republic faces the dual task of surviving their party's internal filtration systems or succession battles, and convincing voters beyond their party's membership. People will no longer be able to sneak into the Union Buildings based on the party’s brand; their integrity will matter the most. The criteria will include what the economic establishment promotes around such personalities and how the voters react to a manufactured mob's consent. 

Through scrutiny of Jacob Zuma’s personal life, South Africa is now concretising its model of the type of leader it is ready to embrace and what types it will not accept. This was sufficiently choreographed for all wannabes to benchmark themselves. The political party's brand power has now been calibrated as a factor with a lower weighting. It will not be surprising if the national dialogue process proposes that whoever is president of the country be allowed to create a cabinet with people who should not necessarily be from within parliament.

Dysfunctions in government have been successfully made a party brand issue to the point where party leaders have become separable from the parties they lead. In some instances, political leaders with the most social and political capital were privatised to become properties of legacy-protecting foundations capable of distancing the leader's image from any ascendant disrepute emanating from successive leaders.

It has been progressively harder for political parties carrying the moral and ethical, including intellectual, legacies of past leaders, to invoke them as a way of cleansing themselves from current dysfunctions. The past has become a brand personality distinct from the unfolding present, to a point where members say, 'we are this leader’s cohort,' which has become a standard nomenclature by some veterans in party forums.

Personal brand equity is set to become a significant factor in political competition. Political parties must contend with this tradable commodity to win the ultimate prize of politics: government. Civil society movements, aiming to remain politically unattached, will become crucial vote-harvesting constituencies, engaging in policy concessions outside party political hegemony. Politician wannabes must start working on their lives as people to make the grade; it is already getting brutal.

The significance of strategic think-tanks and branded individuals has increased in political influence and equity since the 2016 local government elections. Church pulpits and social purpose-driven platforms have become more vital to politicians than their party-specific platforms. The spectacle of filling stadiums to create illusions of greatness will become more prominent than the content delivered within them. 

Without the support of an ethically flawless personality, which, though rare, is difficult to find, no political party can garner the same majority voter support as brand equity-based parties did in the past. There exists a group of new, ethically acceptable personalities, known to society but outside mainstream politics, who have the power to influence electoral outcomes through their associations. These gather at the seams, waiting for personality-driven change movements to organise them into a formidable unit of significant influence.

The tenure of historically earned political capital is undeniably limited. Never in the history of political contestation for state power has the conduct of political leadership across all levels of government, including appointed officials, caused so much harm to the vocation of politics and arguably to public service.

As the pre-2016 advantage of political parties based on size and scale wanes, smaller political parties and single-issue movements like anti-corruption are poised to benefit. This is known as the recalibration of who or what constitutes the majority. The writing is on the wall.

Dr FM Lucky Mathebula is the head of faculty, People Management, and founder of The Thinc Foundation, a think-tank based at the Da Vinci Institute

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