The governing ANC emerged stronger while the official opposition came out the biggest loser of the hotly contested by-elections held across the country.
Voters in the majority of wards that chose new councillors on Thursday handed their votes to the ruling party despite being battered by allegations of corruption.
The ANC retained 64 municipal wards across the country, winning six new ones and losing two.
Its party’s fierce rival, the DA, lost nine wards it previously controlled.
Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) could not hold by-elections for much of the year, leading to it having to hold 95 by-elections all at once.
This was unprecedented but it created an opportunity for parties to have a dry run for the upcoming 2021 local government elections, which are expected to be hotly contested, especially in provinces such as Gauteng where key metros are up for grabs.
The outcome of by-elections are not a reliable yardstick for party support, but the DA has previously performed better in such polls.
The DA’s poor performance is consistent with its dismal performance in 2019’s general elections, where its share of the vote fell from 30.78% in 2014 to 27.45% — an outcome which sent the party into internal turmoil, leading to its then leader Mmusi Maimane and chairperson Athol Trollip resigning.
The outcome of by-elections are not a reliable yardstick for party support, but the DA has previously performed better in in such polls.
The by-elections victory will come as a boost to the ANC, which went into election mode under a cloud of corruption related to Covid-19 procurement and the stealing of food parcels by some of its councillors.
ANC elections head Fikile Mbalula agreed it was a shot in the arm for the party.
“We dubbed this election as a precursor to the 2021 elections and to us it was a dry run. We have come out tops, winning new wards, but we are not complacent.
“Our people continue to raise sharply with us issues of service delivery, which we are going to be focusing on, but they continue to show support to their movement because they have confidence in the ANC to rectify its own mistakes,” said an excited Mbalula.
On the other hand, the DA said it was analysing the results carefully. However, it partly placed the blame on the Schweizer-Reneke saga, which it said continued to haunt the party in North West.
It further placed the blame on its spat with Good leader Patricia de Lille, who fought the party tooth and nail when it wanted to fire her while still Cape Town mayor.
“Yesterday’s by-election also brought to light challenges in the run-up to next year’s election, which the DA intends to tackle head-on, based on the lessons we have learnt,” the party said.
The third-biggest party, EFF, had a lukewarm performance, failing to win any new wards in the major cities.
Political analysts Daniel Silke and Lukhona Mnguni have, however, cautioned that the by-elections were not an accurate tool to predict what would happen in the 2021 local government elections largely because of the poor voter turnout.
They further warned that, unlike in local government elections, there was no national campaign for by-elections.
“There is very little we can read into these elections as lessons or as forecasts for the future,” said Mnguni. He attributed the good performance of the ANC to its loyal supporters who went out to vote despite an otherwise low turnout.
The weak results for the DA do suggest that DA voters are remaining in opposition but are choosing to side with other smaller parties.
Silke said the results do not tell a national story and they were influenced by specific issues at ward level.
“The second point is that based on the results that we do have, it seems clear that South Africans, those who want to vote for opposition parties or against the ANC, it seems they are searching for a political home that they can feel comfortable with.
“The weak results for the DA do suggest that DA voters are remaining in opposition but are choosing to side with other smaller parties because of some sort of dissatisfaction with the DA,” said Silke.
He said there would be soul searching in the DA but he warned that the picture in 2021 may be different, especially in Gauteng, where former Johannesburg mayor Herman Mashaba and his party ActionSA are expected to attract support in the metros
In Johannesburg the DA lost two wards to smaller parties, Gayton McKenzie’s Patriotic Alliance and Al Jama-ah. It also lost ward 120 in Lenasia and another ward in Emfuleni to the ANC.
The results in Gauteng mean that the ANC remains in charge of two key metros, Ekurhuleni and the City of Johannesburg. However, the DA has an opportunity to change this as Johannesburg is expected to hold two by-elections in the party’s strongholds to replace DA councillors who resigned recently.
