Decade of decline: a look back to 2011 shows how far the ANC has fallen

There might still be some counting to do and some dust to settle, but one thing is clear, the ANC is a declining force.

The party’s leadership would have woken up on Wednesday morning deeply concerned about how it fared in Monday’s local government elections. Historically low voter turnout figures hit hard, as the EFF and newcomers ActionSA ate significantly into its support, as did the IFP in northern KwaZulu-Natal ANC strongholds. This while the DA held ground many thought it would lose.

It was not a pretty picture for the ruling party and remained that way throughout the day.

While the ANC slipped significantly from its performance in 2016, looking back to 2011 shows just how the party’s decade of decline has seen it fall.

Unless there are significant changes overnight, come the final vote tally, the ANC will only have majority control in one of the country’s eight metros, East London-based Buffalo City.

The ANC's results in the 2011 local government election show it controlled seven of the country's eight metros with an outright majority:

Buffalo City - ANC, 70.01%; DA, 20.48%

Nelson Mandela Bay - ANC, 51.91%; DA, 40.13%

Manguang - ANC, 66.27%; DA, 27.11%

Ekurhuleni - ANC, 61.63%; DA, 30.29%

Johannesburg - ANC, 58.56%, DA, 34.62%

Tshwane - ANC, 55.32%; DA, 38.65%

eThekwini - ANC, 61.07%; DA, 21.02%

Cape Town - ANC, 32.80%; DA, 60.92%

—  How the mighty fell

This is in stark contrast to 2011, when it had outright control in seven metros. The only council stopping a clean sweep? The City of Cape Town, where the DA was, and still is, dominant after taking over through a multiparty coalition a few years earlier.

But this headline fact worsens when delving into just how far the party has fallen in 10 years.

Starting in the two councils with outright winners, the ANC’s support has slipped significantly, even in Buffalo City. At 6pm on Wednesday, the ruling party had 60.73%, compared with a 70.01% majority in 2011.

In Cape Town, the ANC slipped dramatically, by more than 24%, from 32.80% 10 years ago to 14.29% on Wednesday evening.

Staying on the coast, the party’s marked decline is noticeable in Nelson Mandela Bay and, perhaps more surprisingly, the eThekwini metros.

In the former in 2011, the ANC obtained 51.91% — a majority, albeit a tight one. Pitching forward to Wednesday evening and it had fallen to 40.8%.

One of the biggest areas of plummeting support, however, is in eThekwini, where the party has fallen by nearly 20%. At 6pm on Wednesday, it had 42.92% in the council, down from 61.07% a decade earlier.

In Manguang in the Free State there was similar free fall. It dropped from 66.27% in 2011 to 43.45% on Wednesday evening.

Moving on to Gauteng again shows how the ANC lost support across all three metros.

In Ekurhuleni, the party dropped from 61.63% in 2011 to 35.75% on Wednesday, and saw a similar loss in Tshwane (55.32% in 2011 to 30.74%).

There was a massive loss in Johannesburg, too, from 58.56% in 2011 to 30.16% at 6pm on Tuesday. The losses this time around were largely due to the arrival of ActionSA. 

ANC elections head Fikile Mbalula said “it could have been worse”. Looking at the past decade and how far the mighty has fallen, it’s hard to imagine how.

Analyst Ralph Mathekga said on Tuesday that the party wasn’t able to recover from the start of the decline seen in the 2016 local government elections.

“This is actually a culmination of what happened in 2016 and it shows that they did not have a plan B. I strongly believe that this is the beginning of the end of the ANC,” he said.

The past 10 years show that, unless something changes dramatically, he might well be right.