ANALYSIS | Who will lead SA’s metros? Get out the calculators, it could get complicated

Horse-trading and negotiations will have to begin in earnest, if they haven’t already, after the official results from Monday’s local government elections showed coalitions will be needed in five of the country’s eight metros.

The metropolitan councils were always expected to be closely contested and that turned out to be exactly the case.

In only two of the metros, Cape Town (DA) and Buffalo City (ANC), did the winning party secure a comfortable victory, while in Mangaung the ANC scraped through with a majority of just a single seat.

Everywhere else, the metros were hung, including, perhaps surprisingly, in eThekwini. In some of these councils, a two-party coalition will be enough to secure a majority, but in others the scenarios are incredibly complicated and politically fraught.

Sunday Times Daily breaks down the state of play in each of the metros after the IEC’s announcement of the results on Thursday, starting with the three metros with outright victors.

City of Cape Town

While the DA’s support dipped in the Cape Town metro, it still received enough votes to comfortably rule for the next five years.

The party received 135 seats, many more than the 116 needed for an outright majority in the 231-seat council.

The party’s nearest competitors were way off the pace. The ANC got just 43 seats, the EFF 10 and Patricia de Lille’s GOOD pinned down nine seats.

Manguang

The ANC snatched an outright majority in the heart of the Free State at the very last moment.

In what was once a huge stronghold (the party received 66.27% of the vote in 2011 and 56.52% in what was a poor showing in 2016), it must have feared the worst as results started coming in on Wednesday. By that evening, the ANC had 45.05% of the vote, but was able to turn it around overnight.

Amid all the soul-searching and hand-wringing in the ANC camp, the East London-based Buffalo City metro will stand as a beacon of joy.

The official results showed that the ruling party obtained 50.63% in Mangaung, followed by the DA on 25.73% and the EFF on 11.31%. This translates to the ANC getting 51 seats in the 101-seat council, showing just how close it was there.

The party will certainly be under pressure, though, with just one slip — or a by-election, should one be needed in the next five years — potentially threatening to put it on the back foot.

The DA obtained 26 seats as the official opposition, the EFF 12 seats, the FF+ five seats, the Patriotic Alliance and the Afrikan Alliance of Social Democrats two each. The AIC, ACDP and ATM all got one seat.

Buffalo City

Amid all the soul-searching and hand-wringing in the ANC camp, the East London-based Buffalo City metro will stand as a beacon of joy. Not only did the party get an outright victory and retain the council, it managed to improve its performance from 2016, the only metro where it was able to do so this year.

The party obtained 58.74% of the vote five years ago, but increased this to 59.43% after Monday’s vote. In the process, it won 61 seats in the 100-seat council, giving it a solid majority over the second-placed DA (19.52%, or 20 seats) and third-placed EFF (12.06%, or 13 seats).

What is clear though is that these big three are the only real political forces that remain in Buffalo City, with not a single other party managing to get more than 1% of the vote. Six parties — the UDM, PAC, ATM, AIC, FF+ and ACDP — were able to get one seat apiece.

eThekwini

The ANC’s worst fears have been realised in the coastal eThekwini metro, where the party dropped 14% in a single local government cycle. And while there were worries in a deeply divided province, complicated by the removal of mayor Zandile Gumede during her term of office, that support would slip, few could have imagined the extent of the collapse.

The ANC won eThekwini, but its support dropped to 42.02% (compared to 56.01% in 2016). It is a brutal assessment of the party’s decline.

The DA also saw its support drop in the metro, from 26.92% to 25.62%, while the EFF was the biggest winner. Its support spiked from 3.44% to 10.48%.

What this means, in practical terms, is that an ANC-EFF coalition would be enough for a majority in the 220-seat council. The ANC holds 96 seats and the EFF 24, meaning the combined 120 seats would be enough to surpass the 111 needed for an outright majority.

There was also the mathematical possibility that a DA and ANC coalition would be enough for a majority.

Another option for the ANC in eThekwini is that it teams up with the IFP (which won 16 seats), along with other smaller parties that won seats, to get over the mark. This could also be used as a makeweight in the two parties striking deals in northern KZN, where the IFP performed strongly.

But unseating the ANC would be extremely complicated and need the Red Berets on board.

The DA would have to combine its 58 seats with the EFF’s for a combined 82 seats. The IFP would also need to join with its 16 seats. But this still wouldn’t be enough. Even if ActionSA’s two seats were used in the coalition, the four-party team would only be on 100 seats.

A host of smaller parties secured single seats, or two seats, and they would need to join for an at least 10-party coalition to get to the 111 needed.

Nelson Mandela Bay

The battle for control of Nelson Mandela Bay could not have been any tighter, with the DA and the ANC winning the same number of seats in the Gqeberha-based metro.

The parties both won 48 seats in the 120-seat council. But with no other party able to reach double figures in terms of percentage support or council seats — the EFF was next best on eight seats — who walks away in partial control of the metro is going to be complicated.

Outside the big three, there are 16 seats up for grabs.

Apart from a DA and ANC teaming, mathematically, the smallest number of parties needed in a winning coalition of 61 combined seats would be four, provided the EFF gives its eight seats to the DA or the ANC, and the Northern Alliance (three seats) and one of four other parties who got two seats do the same.

If this doesn’t happen, expect even bigger coalitions to be a possibility.

It’s going to be an interesting next few weeks in Gqeberha.

Tshwane

The only two-party coalition that would work in Tshwane is one between the DA and the ANC. If this doesn't happen, then it will take at least a three-party coalition to rule the Tshwane metro, with the EFF, FF+ and ActionSA — very possibly all three — likely to play a significant role in what happens next.

The ANC might have won the Ekurhuleni metro, but it will need to team up with at least one party to get over the line and gain control of the council through a coalition.

While the ANC won the 214-seat council, it did so with a very slight margin over the DA. The party received 75 seats, compared with the DA’s 69. The EFF was third with 23 seats, followed by ActionSA with 19 and the FF+ with 17.

To win the council, any coalition will need 108 combined seats and there is no two-party partnership that would make this mathematically possible (apart from DA and ANC). In fact, the only three-party coalitions that would be enough would be if the ANC or the DA teamed up with the EFF and ActionSA.

However, what could work in the DA’s favour is that there are a handful of smaller parties that secured seats and getting them on board would give the DA control even without the EFF being in its corner. For example, a combination of the DA, ActionSA and the FF+ would be just three seats short of control.

Get out the calculators. It’s going to be fascinating in Tshwane.

Ekurhuleni

The ANC might have won the Ekurhuleni metro, but it will need to team up with at least one party to get over the line and gain control of the council through a coalition. Here, a similar situation to the one in eThekwini is brewing.

The ANC received 86 seats, the DA 65 and the EFF 31. But the ultimate coalition will need 113 seats in the 224-seat council, a tally that will be reached if the ANC and EFF team up (for a combined 117 seats). Another two-party coalition that would result in enough seats was one between the ANC and DA.

Much like in eThekwini, for the DA to make sure the ANC isn’t in the winning partnership, the DA will not only have to convince the EFF to vote with it, but also get Herman Mashaba’s ActionSA (15 seats) and the FF+ (eight seats) to come on board.

Johannesburg

Herman Mashaba’s ActionSA could soon see him the kingmaker in Johannesburg.

To get control of SA’s biggest economy, the winning party would need to have taken 136 seats in the 270-seat council. But everybody fell way short of this.

The ANC won the metro, getting 91 seats. The DA was second best with 71 seats. In third, in a strong performance, was newcomer ActionSA with 44 seats. The EFF also polled well, with 29 seats. No other party got more than 10, but this doesn’t mean their seats will be insignificant.

What this means is that, as in Tshwane, there is no two-party coalition (except DA and ANC, again) that would be enough for a majority. The closest that is possible would be the ANC teaming up with ActionSA, but these 135 seats would be one short.

Mashaba getting into bed with the DA would leave that coalition 21 seats short of control, but there are significantly more than this available from among other smaller parties that picked up seats.

Either way, there will definitely be an at least three-party coalition in charge of Johannesburg. But who those parties are is still far from being known.