Political scandals may not influence voter behaviour as much as some think due to the complexity of the factors at play in South Africa when people decide where to make their X on election day, experts say.
Yanga Malotana, project manager of Project Vote at the Emerging Scholars Initiative (ESI) Press, at the University of Pretoria, believes the scandals that have plagued the ANC since 2019 are most likely not going to hurt the party, as loyalty voters could become swing voters.
According to Malotana, if anything, the biggest action that could hurt the ANC is if their loyal voters decide to stay home on May 29.
“The ANC won by 57.5% in the 2019 general elections and this translated to just over 10-million votes. The ANC has about 1-million card-carrying members, meaning 9-million people genuinely supported the ANC in 2019 despite the Gupta scandal, Nkandla and so on. After that, there were multiple other scandals including Phala Phala and former president Jacob Zuma starting his own party.
“I believe it would be naive to not consider the party’s base voter is often in rural South Africa or they are a loyalty voter — if not both. The ANC is going to be heavily relying on those loyalty votes in this election.”
Sethulego Matebesi, associate professor and head of the sociology faculty at the University of the Free State, said the impact of political scandals on party electoral support in South Africa tends to differ from trends in many parts of the world.
Matebesi said despite recurring scandals, larger parties such as the ANC continue to maintain significant support.
“There are a few factors reducing scandal impact on electoral support. These factors include party loyalty, identity politics and historical context. Even though there have been scandals like Phala Phala, I believe many citizens have completely forgotten about it, and we might not see immediate drastic shifts in electoral support, but they do plant seeds of doubt and gradually erode trust.”
Ndzalama Mathebula, assistant lecturer, tutor coordinator and undergraduate coordinator in the department of politics and international relations at the University of Johannesburg, said the Phala Phala issue could potentially influence voting behaviour. “However, it is worth noting that the Phala Phala matter is one segment of what individuals can perceive as poor governance within the ruling party.”
Matebesi said the elections will likely be dominated by personality politics, with Zuma and former ANC secretary-general Ace Magashule continuing to attack President Cyril Ramaphosa's leadership style.
Matebesi said another interesting factor is the youth vote.
“While younger South Africans have demonstrated their disillusionment with the political status quo by abstaining from voting, it will be interesting to see whether the high number of young voters will translate into voting.
“The so-called urban versus rural divide may once again play a key role in the election outcomes. Some urban voters are likely to vote for smaller parties or the opposition to express discontent,” he said.
Malotana said that the elections will be very interesting due to the large number of new candidates on the ballot.
“This is the first time that the governing party, ANC, faces the possibility of dipping below 50% at a national level. The stage has also been set for independent candidates. It will be very interesting to see how this new development in our electoral process plays out,” he said.
Malotana said often the number of people who actually show up and vote on election day is lower than the numbers registered.
“This is very concerning considering youth make up the smallest voting demographic on all levels. Yet the biggest disillusionment in South Africa rests on the back of young people due to unemployment, lack of access to good quality education, crime and poverty. There’s hope though. When the IEC ran its voter registration campaign, 70% of the newly registered voters were young people. Perhaps, therein lies the idea that these elections might be like those of 1994,” she said.
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