ANC leaders, by late Thursday night, appeared to have all but accepted that they will dip below 50% support for the first time in a national election.
By 8pm on Thursday, the party's share of the national vote had consistently remained stuck in the mid-40s, with 35% of the voting districts declared, or more than 3.5-million votes.
TimesLIVE has learnt that what was displayed on the IEC’s giant leader board at Gallagher Estate in Midrand on Thursday night was consistent with an internal ANC poll conducted in the run-up to elections, which placed it at no more than 46% support.
The poll is also said to indicate that the ANC would struggle to retain control of Gauteng, placing it at around 42%.
According to IEC results by 8pm, the ANC had only amassed 36% of the votes in Gauteng, followed closely by the DA at 29% and the EFF at 11%.
If all this is anything to go by, Cyril Ramaphosa may very well be the first ANC leader to lose a national election.
This also means the ANC may start early discussions about forming coalition governments at national and provincial levels, should the trends be maintained as more votes are counted.
So far, both the ANC and MK Party leaders have discounted a possible coalition between the two parties.
This is likely because MK Party has made it clear that it does not believe in the “ANC of Ramaphosa” and would call for his removal as part of its non-negotiables should there be any coalition talks.
A grand coalition between the ANC, DA and possibly the IFP was also a possibility, with several leaders showing signs of an appetite.
This coalition was likely to get pushback from some ANC leaders who are bringing up the question of ideological differences with the DA.
ANC Eastern Cape provincial chairperson Oscar Mabuyane told sister publication Herald they were “worried” about the governing party losing its majority in parliament.
These are the leaders who are also showing signs of ruling out the IFP, bringing into question the bloody conflict between the two parties in KwaZulu-Natal.
In Gauteng, the ANC leaders say a coalition with the EFF seems more likely, but the party elders were not very supportive given how difficult they say the EFF had been in negotiations after the 2021 local government elections.
It is yet to be seen if the party will consider the EFF at national level.
By late Thursday, the MK party had caused the biggest upset in this election, stunning the IFP and the ANC in KZN.
The eight-month old party, led by former president Jacob Zuma, shows signs of having eaten into the ANC's and EFF's voter bloc, especially in KZN.
MK Party seems to be on its way to pulling off an upset in KZN by taking the province away from the ANC.
Some ANC leaders say it was inevitable that the party will be in opposition in KZN.
It appeared on Thursday night that the Zuma influence was a serious factor.
MK Party was almost neck and neck with the EFF at the national level, with both parties hovering around 400,000 votes out of the total 3.8-million votes counted thus far.
MK Party KZN leader Simphiwe Mpungose said the results indicated what voters were telling the party during the election campaign.
“We are happy ... that people were truthful because they said they would vote for us during the election, but you never know.
“It's a trend that we are going to see throughout. It's early days, yes, but we don't think there will be any significant change that will interfere with our lead,” he said.
On Thursday night in the regional vote, the MK Party in KZN was leading with 175,656 votes while the ANC vote tallied at 35,790, with 21.29% of the votes counted.
Mpungose said the party would meet and announce in due course decisions about its future in government should they win. He did not want to discuss coalitions, insisting that the MK Party would still win an outright majority in KZN.
The DA was also holding at 25%, with over one-million votes.
The DA also seemed to be well on its way to retain its “good governance” crown jewel of the Western Cape.
By just after 8pm, it had secured a 52% majority in that province, with some of the votes from its voter base areas yet to be declared, with the ANC coming in second at just over 20%.
The Patriotic Alliance was also putting in a good showing, surpassing the IFP, UDM, Rise Mzansi, Bosa, ACDP and ActionSA.
The Moonshot Pact parties, except for the DA, seem to be doing dismally so far with ActionSA struggling to crack the one seat mark of just more than 40,000 votes.
The Northern Cape was under threat of slipping away from the ANC, with the party only garnering 46% and the DA coming second at 23%, after 85% of the votes had been declared by 8.15pm.
