Former EFF deputy president Floyd Shivambu has allegedly been promised a top position in the MK Party (MKP) after his shock exit from the red berets, which came as a surprise to leader Julius Malema.
Shivambu announced in a sombre news conference on Thursday that he is joining former president Jacob Zuma, whose uMkhonto Wesizwe dislodged the EFF as the third-largest party in the country at the recent elections.
Insiders in the Zuma-led party said Shivambu was expected to become the second in command in the party — the deputy president.
One insider and close ally of Zuma said Shivambu's skills would be used to grow support in parts of the country the MKP has been unable to penetrate, including Limpopo and parts of Gauteng. They said Shivambu could be given a role which would include powers held by a secretary-general to help grow and stabilise the party.
Shivambu's exit came after months of speculation over his relationship with Malema.
The former EFF leader was expected to have faced a tough challenge from EFF secretary-general Marshall Dlamini when the party goes to its conference in December.
One insider said Shivambu had been unhappy with Malema when he was redeployed from KwaZulu-Natal.
Malema removed him from the province after it emerged that Shivambu had failed to connect with structures and stabilise the party.
It was Shivambu who had been blamed for a less than satisfactory showing in the province when the party held its manifesto launch shortly before the elections at eThwekini's Moses Mabhida Stadium.
In his letter to Malema, Shivambu said his resignation did not serve as a vote of no confidence in the organisation, but was a revolutionary act that will allow progressive forces to unite and work towards the agenda for progressive and revolutionary change.
“I have never in my service of the organisation acted outside its democratic and revolutionary decisions, discipline and practice. I have served with humility and discipline. I will never abandon the cause for economic emancipation and true freedom in our lifetime. I will never compromise my commitment to true emancipation and Marxist-Leninist ideological lenses to view and understand society,” he said.
From a policy development point of view he is a strong politician in terms of articulation of his ideas in parliamentary debates — an issue that needs a high level of political content and ideological outlook that was always left to Floyd to deal with by the EFF
— Bukani Mngoma, political analyst
The move by Shivambu opens the way for massive contestation, with the likes of Mbuyiseni Ndlozi already said to be vying for key positions.
However, there is speculation that there could be a mass exodus of those loyal to Shivambu from the party, including provincial and national leaders.
Speaking at the media briefing on Thursday, Malema said he expected that some would leave with Shivambu.
Political analysts believe the move by Shivambu is a coup by Zuma's party.
Political analyst Bukani Mngoma said while the EFF had reasons to mourn, the Shivambu move was a coup d'état for the newly formed MK Party, which is often said to lack substance.
“From a policy development point of view he is a strong politician in terms of articulation of his ideas in parliamentary debates — an issue that needs a high level of political content and ideological outlook that was always left to Floyd to deal with by the EFF.
“From that point of view the MK Party is going to benefit from him because other than being seen as a party of people who are bitter, you now have a person who can consolidate the views of the party and shape them into a tangible and formidable policy direction as opposed to policy rhetoric — the MK Party scored quite handsomely,” he said.
Since inception, the MKP has failed to display internal democratic principles, with decisions to remove MPs and expulsions that seem to foster a hierarchical organisation.
Mngoma believes that Shivambu will not struggle to adapt to the MK Party's way of doing things, as “the way the EFF leader Julius Malema operates is not too different from how Zuma operates”.
“The only difference is the MK Party doesn't have constitutional structures, Floyd went in there knowing those are the limitations and he wouldn't have gone there with the intention of rocking the boat because he wouldn't be able to stand up to Zuma.
“He knows he won't be successful if he wants to come in and introduce the democratic heritage of the ANC into the MK Party. He will work within the ‘what ubaba says' nature of the MK Party and just guide and act as an adviser to Zuma,” Mngoma added.
Mngoma is adamant that Shivambu’s manner of departure, while a loss for the EFF, was handled in a manner that will not destroy the party.
“It can't be a minor difference that he is leaving the EFF, they should have reached a conflicting period of no compromise, but what is evident is that he did not want to have a bruising political battle and contest, because Malema is not going anywhere.
“For him to leave before the EFF conference indicates they did not want a Shilowa — Lekota situation because they know what that led to for COPE.”
Shilowa and Lekota fell out after establishing COPE. COPE was a splinter of the ANC after Thabo Mbeki's recall as president.
If there is no big scheme, it is part of the writing on the wall for the EFF, because they are in a space where they have to regain momentum very soon or it will not ever regain it
— Susan Booysen, political analyst
“In the MK Party he will play a policy-driving role while accepting that he is not going to democratise the MK Party,” said Mngoma.
Rumours of a possible future merger of the EFF with the MK Party surfaced after Shivambu’s announcement.
Political analyst Susan Booysen said if there is any merit to the rumours, the move only harms the EFF in the short term, because the former EFF deputy is a strong leader and some supporters may leave with him. But if there is a long-term strategy to use this move to grow the two parties together, then the EFF gains as well.
“If there is no long-term game, then this is a grim day for the EFF. If there is no broader long-term strategy, the EFF is in a bad spot at the moment. They did not do well in the elections, the MK Party did, eating into its support, taking away the steam that the EFF had.”
She said Malema had made a massive concession that the party had inherited votes from the ANC which were later taken by the MKP in this year's elections.
“If there is no big scheme, it is part of the writing on the wall for the EFF, because they are in a space where they have to regain momentum very soon or it will not ever regain it,” she explained.
She added that despite its electoral victories this year, the MKP was weak with a potential to implode depending on Zuma.
“In the main, it is a win for the MK Party and it really depends on what they do with this person. They need to be mindful of the baggage that comes with Floyd, but then it's not a party where that sort of thing is foreign territory,” she added.
Shivambu has been implicated in the VBS Mutual Bank scandal. In 2018 the bank was declared insolvent and placed under curatorship, with South African citizens and taxpayers defrauded out of billions of rand.
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