The uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) Party has won its second ward by-election victory, making inroads in areas not predicted to be its traditional strongholds.
Its first was in its home ground in KwaZulu-Natal.
The eight-month-old party gained a councillor in Rustenberg, North West, which elections analyst Wayne Sussman believes is a significant feat.
“This is a ward where two parties are strong. It is a significant result. The ANC is very strong in Rustenberg, but the EFF is stronger in this particular part of Rustenberg. For a new entrant to come in and do this, it says something.”
The previous ward councillor, Poppy Morapedi, was murdered while walking home with a cousin, which resulted in a vacancy and the holding of a by-election to fill the post.
The ANC, EFF and MK were on the ballot.
Ward 45 in Photsaneng Marikana, Rustenburg, results placed MK in pole position with 43%, the ANC in second place with 33% and the red berets at 24%.
With the loss of a seat, the ANC might need to co-opt a smaller party to maintain its control over Rustenberg, or alternatively construct a new co-governing deal with a larger party. The aim is to secure a base of 46 seats to rule over the 90-seat council.
Sussman believes there are a number of reasons this victory is a possible indicator that the MK Party is establishing itself outside its traditional support base.
“The fact that MK could come in there as a new entrant and win the ward is a significant development for a number of reasons. This is not a Zulu-speaking area and it is far from KZN. It is also the part of North West where Rustenberg is the most populous municipality. The district, which lies in the platinum belt, is where the ANC has been resolutely strong and the EFF has had its own historic strengths.
“There was also a by-election in Mpumalanga where MK beat the EFF in an area which is not strongly Zulu. We are seeing this pattern emerge.”
Should former president Jacob Zuma's party do well in the upcoming by-election in Hlaudi, Soweto, Sussman believes a triumph over the ANC and EFF should be interpreted as a warning bell.
Hlaudi is a predominantly Sesotho and Setswana-speaking area. If MK can do well and also beat the EFF there - then that is a significant warning to both the ANC and the EFF
— Elections analyst Wayne Sussman
“Hlaudi is a predominantly Sesotho and Setswana-speaking area. If MK can do well and also beat the EFF there — then that is a significant warning to both the ANC and the EFF.”
The MK Party has beefed up its ranks, with the EFF's former deputy president Floyd Shivambu ditching the red berets to join Zuma as the party's national organiser. He was followed by former Joburg speaker and South African Rainbow Alliance leader Colleen Makhubele, who announced her decision to join last week.
It is rumoured that Xiluva leader and former Midvaal mayor Bongani Baloyi is next on the MK Party's hit list, and is set to make a similar move this week.
Sussman says its strategy to establish itself outside its traditional support base might be yielding results.
“They will believe that with Floyd Shivambu joining MK, with other junior players in politics having defected over the past couple of days from parties which haven't done well but have some kind of name recognition in Gauteng is working.
“It is a potential to watch out for and we will watch the next by-elections closely to see if the party can continue its momentum.”
As the third-largest party in the country, Sussman says MK has an opportunity to showcase strength in numbers before the next electoral polls.
“They have substantially more MPs than the EFF. Because they are the largest radical party in South Africa, they have a tremendous opportunity now. It hasn't been all smooth since the general election, they have been quite underwhelming in some KZN by elections.
“They've won this ward in the North West and have had some other good results over the last round of by-elections. They'll think [this means] that the party has been able to solidify itself, establish itself, set up some structures, make sure the right people are in parliament and legislatures, as well as set itself up for a good few months leading to elections in 2026.”
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