The recent victory of the IFP in the by-election in Nkandla demonstrates that the party remains the preferred choice in that region, elections analyst Wayne Sussman says.
Meanwhile, the IFP asserted that its victory confirms the party's strong presence and support in the area.
The IFP has retained its Nkandla ward, trumping the uMkhonto we Sizwe party right in Jacob Zuma's backyard in the recent by-election.
The party received 1,057 votes, placing them in pole position, with the MK Party trailing behind them with 779 votes. The ANC had a poor showing at 132 votes.
“Despite competition from the MK Party, led by (former president) Jacob Zuma — who hails from Nkandla — and the ANC, the people of ward 4 have demonstrated that the IFP is their party of choice. This is a ... clear message that Nkandla residents believe in the IFP's ability to deliver,” said the party in a statement.
This is a very good result for the IFP, and it just shows that though Zuma comes from Nkandla, the IFP remains the party of choice.
— Wayne Sussman, elections analyst
Sussman commended the feat, saying they did well where they contested.
This is the home municipality of Zuma, but it is also the home municipality of KwaZulu-Natal premier and IFP provincial leader Thami Ntuli.
“If we had to look at the map of KwaZulu-Natal after May 2024, you would have seen a sea of MK green. There were a number of municipalities where the IFP won, and Nkandla was one of those. This is a very good result for the IFP, and it just shows that though Zuma comes from Nkandla, the IFP remains the party of choice.
“The IFP also had huge results in places like Mpofane, in the Umgungundlovu district — a part of the province where they had been historically very unpopular, which goes back many years. So last night was a good night for the IFP,” he said.
The MK Party had a mixed bag of results, contesting in two other wards which they did not win. They took a ward off the ANC in the Ray Nkonyeni municipality, but was unable to build on its strong May showing in some areas.
They saw their second ward councillor elected as it turned the tables on the ANC and the EFF in Rustenburg, North West.
“The MKParty produced a sensational upset to win the Photsaneng, Marikana ward in Rustenburg by 258 votes, beating the ANC and EFF who contested for the seat.”
The DA achieved a big feat by successfully defending all its 16 wards which were up for grabs in this by-election.
Five of those wards were situated in the Kenneth Kaunda region, which includes the towns of Potchefstroom, Klerksdorp and Wolmaransstad in North West.
Sussman believes these are all historically safe DA seats, which the Freedom Front Plus attempted to make inroads in previously, but chose not to contest this time.
“I mean, that's not the DA's fault that they did not contest; that was an FF Plus decision. But the DA will be happy in four of the five wards. The one ward is interesting, the turnout was low, less than 10%, but we saw the EFF do very well. This is something we see across the board and not just in Potchefstroom.
In the 2024 elections, the ANC lost a lot of ground among black voters in Gauteng, and these results suggest that they might be reversing that trend and this is a good sign for them on the road to 2026.
— Wayne Sussman, elections analyst
“In areas that were historically suburban, where there is a big demand for student housing and accommodation, we're seeing these wards become competitive between the DA and the EFF. The DA has won this time, but many in the EFF will think that if they manage to get more students out to vote, they can win in those wards.
“In the last round of by-elections, the DA lost a seat to an independent in eThekwini, and this time, they did not slip on any banana peels; they won with very big majorities, reaching 98-99% in some of the wards in KZN.”
Five of those seats defended by the DA were in KZN, where it painted the polls blue with outright majority wins, with an additional five in Free State and one seat in Limpopo.
Sussman highlighted Al Jama-ah's notable performance, where it retained a ward in Johannesburg.
“In the Lenasia by-election, the only Al Jama-ah ward in the country, it was really neck and neck a few months ago between Al Jama-ah and the DA. Yesterday [Wednesday] we saw Al Jama-ah victoriously reaching 60%, winning by a big margin for a second consecutive time at a local level. This shows that this was not just because the previous Al Jama-ah councillor, now an MP, was popular — but the party remains very strong on a local level there.”
Still in Gauteng, Sussman believes the ANC should applaud itself for their by-election performance, calling it a possible indicator of turning the tide where it bled support in the national elections.
“The ANC, however, which had a very poor performance in 2024 elections in Gauteng, for them to grow in both the Hlaudi ward in Soweto and the Kagiso township in Krugersdorp — this is a very good outcome. I think Panyaza Lesufi and Dada Morero will be very happy today. In the 2024 elections, the ANC lost a lot of ground among black voters in Gauteng, and these results suggest that they might be reversing that trend and this is a good sign for them on the road to 2026.”
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