There is no room for complacency in dealing with the “worrying” full review of bilateral relations between SA and the US, particularly as SA sees the US as its “trade and investment partner of choice”.
This is according to SA’s newly appointed ambassador to the US Ebrahim Rasool.
Rasool will go to the US next month for his second stint as ambassador to that country. This comes at a time of deep political flux in SA and the US, with Donald Trump returning to the White House and the Republican Party taking the House and the Senate.
Earlier this year, the US House of Representatives legislated for a full review of bilateral relations between the US and SA, triggered by perceptions that SA had abandoned its nonaligned stance and concern about its deepening ties with China, Russia and Iran.
“When 211 members of both houses conduct an in-cycle review it has to be treated seriously. The US is our trade and investment partner of choice. I see myself as essentially and initially a defender of SA interests in the US,” Rasool told Business Day on Monday.
Social Research Foundation director Frans Cronje said the perception of SA expressed by the bill as a national security threat posed a larger risk for SA than simply being excluded from trade deals with the US, and it could have far-reaching consequences.
Rasool conceded SA had not been entirely adept at managing its diplomatic ties, which he likened to a pendulum, with values on the one hand and interests on the other.
Countries such as India got the “pendulum swing” right to land midway. SA had been swinging too far, “emphasising values so strongly” that the country’s interests were neglected. In certain instances, such as the Palestine impasse, SA was “forced to overreach”, he said, and “placed all its interest eggs in the Brics basket”.
The US is our trade and investment partner of choice. I see myself as essentially and initially a defender of SA interests in the US.
— SA ambassador to the US Ebrahim Rasool
‘Pendulum diplomacy’
What was needed was “a bit of pendulum diplomacy”, where the country stabilised between interests and values.
In response to potentially fake news that the ANC received money from Iran and Qatar to pursue its case against Israel in the International Criminal Court, Rasool said since the “post-truth world” had accelerated “sharply” so had the need for “logic and reasoning” and more sophisticated means of communication.
His approach against the “rabbit hole” of potentially fake news was to “keep it simple. Iran is sanctioned, SA is grey listed. We have fought hard to rid ourselves of grey listing, most importantly we are succeeding. Are you saying the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) was blind”?
The FATF is the global money laundering and terror financing watchdog. Countries are placed on its grey list when they have deficiencies in their anti-money laundering and counterterrorism funding regimes, according to its website.
SA has been working closely with FATF to get off the grey list and made progress. There are six measures needing strengthening of 22 for it to get off the list, which is not likely to occur in the first half of 2025. Rasool said the most dire consequence of the US review could be SA’s exclusion from the African Growth Opportunity Act (Agoa), up for renewal next year. The least dire, but nevertheless damaging, would be “conditional” trade ties between the two countries.
While Agoa accounted for only 10% of the $22bn (R398bn) trade between the countries, SA could not be “cavalier” in the face of potential exclusion.
Rasool said the government of national unity (GNU) was an opportunity to “reset” SA’s international relations. So far, the response of markets and investors was “very positive”. He saw the GNU as an opportunity to usher in an era of “technocratic government”. This was so because of the ANC including the DA.
“There is positivity over the fact that we have largely isolated our populists,” he said, referring to the exclusion of parties such as former president Jacob Zuma’s MK Party.
Cronje said any potential shift from the GNU centrist pact could further damage ties with the US. He warned of a US “hard line” against SA.
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