The ANC has dismissed claims that GNU partner the DA is in pole position, overtaking the party's title of being the country's largest party.
ANC spokesperson Mahlengi Bhengu-Motsiri said her party does not respond to polling, as it is used to sway public opinion.
According to their latest research, the Institute of Race Relations believes the DA has edged past the ANC for the first time since its inception.
Not only has the DA surpassed the ANC, which sits at 29.7%, but the institute makes the case that the party has made serious inroads, tripling its support from black voters.
“DA support among black voters has surged from 5% to 18%, demonstrating the political potential for the DA to grow its support across traditional divides by focusing on pragmatic policy issues, especially economic concerns,” read the report.
In addition, it attributes the ANC's decline to its pro-poor and transformation policies, saying their BEE stance has alienated voters.
“Where the public perceives the GNU as a vehicle for political moderation and collaboration, the ANC has estranged voters with its continued pursuit of unpopular socioeconomic policies, of which the VAT increase has proved a costly example.”
IRR strategic communications head Hermann Pretorius said their analysis shows the electorate is growing tired and dissatisfied with the ANC's insistence on policies like raising VAT.
South Africans can see that the DA is the party that really fights for everybody, especially the poorest of the poor.
— Willie Aucamp, party spokesperson
“It is not just the VAT raise, we have seen that there is an increasing dissatisfaction with the ANC's socioeconomic policy direction. The DA, on the other hand, has managed to gain and benefit from being in the GNU political bloc in parliament and in the executive.
“They have also as a party shown dissatisfaction with raising VAT, which has positioned them on the side of South Africans who seek this significant change. The ANC's support has contracted from their May 2024 outcomes.”
This comes on the back of the Brenthurst Foundation survey which suggested the opposite, that a strong majority of South Africans approve of the GNU, despite the falling out of the two main parties over a series of issues in recent months.
Their polling suggested both the ANC and DA had benefited from the national coalition.
“If an election was held now, the ANC would win 41% of the national vote [43% when modelled for turnout] and the DA 26% [27% when modelled for turnout],” according to their findings.
Welcoming the outcomes, the DA said the findings were consistent with their own polling, which reflected the party's growth.
Party spokesperson Willie Aucamp said their support had increased drastically, with the ANC losing support because of how they handled the budget and VAT issue.
“South Africans can see that the DA is the party that really fights for everybody, especially the poorest of the poor.
Aucamp admitted even though polling was not an exact science and would never be 100% accurate, it provided a good picture of the political landscape.
He hailed the perceived increase of black support, saying it was a clear indication the ANC's long-standing “fear mongering” approach has fallen flat.
“They've long said the DA will take away your grants, or that we are an apartheid party, or that we are a white monopoly capital party, which is untrue. The people can see the DA is fighting to grow the economy and create job and cut expenditures on all levels of government, making sure it goes into service delivery.
“People of all races can see that. Black voters can see they can no longer trust the ANC to act in their best interests and that the DA demonstrated that we will represent all South Africans, especially the poorest of the poor at all times.”
He denied that the IRR was biased towards the DA, saying the institute has always been independent of his party and that the pair has not been colluding to sway public opinion.
Pretorius said his organisation had taken stock of the context within which polling was taken, conceding that he feared that its findings may be fleeting.
“The political debate in the GNU and parliament ensured national political interest was focused on the budget, particularly the proposed VAT increase. The VAT debate can therefore be considered an aberration of discourse, introducing alternative grounds on which registered voters are likely to make decisions of party support.”
He said the findings may be unusual to some, but the institute has an understanding of why that is the case.
“2025 is a non-election year. Voters can afford a period of window shopping. Political loyalty or alliances are perhaps now at their loosest point in the electoral cycle. This polling is a snapshot of a moment in time which coincides with a unique context with a socioeconomic debate being the political question of the day and is not a prediction.”
Conducted between the March 27 and April 3 this year, the institute revealed its view was canvassed among 807 registered South African voters.
Its margin of error is said to be about 4% and a confidence level of 95%.
Pretorius said their opinion poll was neither a prediction or census.
“It is not about making sure that we asked as many South Africans as we can, that is not how data science behind opinion polling works. It is rather based on the assumption that once you get to a sizeable repetition of a question that can go one of a few ways, you start seeing a normal bell curve pattern of the responses you get in terms of your questioning.”
He made an example of a pizza, to paint a clearer picture of his polling.
“To taste a pizza, you don't have to eat all the slices of the pizza. You just need to have a fair slice, which we call a representative sample. You must make sure you pick a slice that is random, that is there is no bias on your side where you are picking a slice that is not of your liking.”
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