President Cyril Ramaphosa will be forced to perform a balancing act between the party's interests and those of the country when weighing his options on whether to fire police minister Senzo Mchunu and higher education minister Nobuhle Nkabane, NEC insiders said.
They claim the removal of two ministers from KwaZulu-Natal will likely form part of the considerations by Ramaphosa when attending to these issues.
The ANC's national executive committee is due to meet in two weeks where the ministers are likely to form part of the discussions.
Ramaphosa announced on Thursday he would be addressing the nation on Sunday after damning allegations made by the KwaZulu-Natal police commissioner Lt-Gen Nhlanhla Mkwanazi against Mchunu.
The presidency said Ramaphosa undertook to attend to the developments on his return from Brazil, in view of the implications for national security.
It said he has been seized with the matter in recent days and will, after consultations, take the nation into his confidence on Sunday evening.
This comes after the media briefing on Sunday that rocked the country. Mkwanazi alleged Mchunu had ordered the dissolution of the task team investigating political killings after the team had uncovered a drug cartel in Gauteng involving senior police officers, politicians, prosecutors and members of the judiciary.
These allegations came as Ramaphosa had been under pressure to act against Nkabane, who is under investigation by parliament's ethics committee for having lied over the appointment of a panel to appoint heads of Setas.
The two leaders have since been taken to the ANC's integrity committee — a body of elders that presides over the party judging individuals on their ethical and moral compass.
Mchunu is one of Ramaphosa's strongest allies and was instrumental in him gaining numbers in KwaZulu-Natal when he ran for party president in 2017.
You can’t ignore KZN. It's a big problem for us
— ANC leader from the province
Mchunu, who was on Ramaphosa's slate at the time, fell short of gaining the required votes for the position of secretary-general, losing to Ace Magashule, who was later expelled. He then became Ramaphosa's eyes and ears at Luthuli House for a short stint before he was appointed to cabinet in 2018.
At least three NEC members who have spoken to TimesLIVE Premium said Ramaphosa will find it difficult to fire Mchunu.
They said Mchunu is among the few leaders within the ANC whom Ramaphosa considered as his successor.
Mchunu's ambition to take over from Ramaphosa in the ANC were first reported by the Sunday Times in October after the local government elections.
While the race for president is believed to be between secretary-general Fikile Mbalula and deputy president Paul Mashatile, Mchunu is believed to be among those working towards achieving this goal.
The allegations against Mchunu are likely to make it difficult for him should they be proven, one NEC member said.
“There have been allegations against comrade Paul, but those allegations are distant, indirect. It's always his kids or family that implicates him. That is something we will have to consider in congress. It's even worse for Senzo. He is directly implicated. The president will have pressure to act and if the president acts, it’s almost the end of the line for any ambition he may have to take over,” the insider said.
They added that another challenge for Mchunu was that he had lost numbers in KZN to fight the battle ahead.
Another NEC member said Mchunu's position as the most senior cabinet member from KZN would necessitate that Ramaphosa considers all his options before he acts on Mkwanazi's allegations.
They said that while Mchunu did not enjoy major support in KZN, the fragile situation the ANC finds itself in the province “should not be ignored”.
The ANC lost the province last year after receiving only 17% of the vote — a big decline from 54% in 2019. This was in part attributed to the party having ignored key stakeholders and having failed to utilise its most senior leaders in the province.
“You can’t ignore KZN. It's a big problem for us,” an ANC leader from the province said. He added there are many NEC members who Ramaphosa could choose from should he opt to remove Mchunu.
“If the two ministers are removed, the best thing to do is to replace them with other competent leaders from the province. Remember we are at war in KZN every day. We are fighting to regain our position and if the leadership ignores that, if they don't take this seriously, then we are in trouble in the next elections. Fire Senzo and Nkabane, they are a liability, but bring in comrades from this province as their replacements.”
A high-ranking ANC insider said they don't believe Ramaphosa will have any issues in KZN should he remove the two ministers. The NWC member said the two ministers had a case to answer.
“They are not the only people in KZN from the NEC. If he wants to put in people from KZN in cabinet, he can do that. It's not a problem at all. Zweli [Mkhize] was removed and there was no problem. But you do need to have a senior person from KZN in government and Senzo poses that predicament because he is senior,” the NWC member said.
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