The Wales touring squad received a clean bill of health earlier this week but it is their three-Test series against the Springboks that kicks off at Loftus Versfeld on Saturday that could provide a reliable prognosis of Welsh rugby’s general well being.
The news that the injury cloud has lifted over Tomas Francis, Rhys Patchell, Tomas Williams and Josh Adams would have been a source of comfort for Wales coach Wayne Pivac who is only too aware he will need all hands on deck in this series.
Pivac and the men under his remit cannot afford more dispiriting news to echo through the valleys of Welsh rugby, for it has had its fill this year.
On and off the field Welsh rugby is at a critical juncture. Since the game turned pro, Welsh rugby has struggled to bed down a system in which the game can thrive at professional and amateur level.
They are in the throes of a fresh bout of soul searching and they may have to arrive at the painful conclusion that less is more. Cutting one of their United Rugby Championship (URC) entities features among a raft of options on the table.
In short, they need to find a sustainable way of running four professional franchises and there, from all accounts, appears to be no clear path to that objective.
Naturally, the performances of their teams in the URC helped fuel some of the debate. None of their sides featured in the play-offs and occupied positions nine, 10, 14 and 15 on the points table. Those results would have done little to convince coach Pivac that he can significantly widen his player pool in the wake of Wales’s poor performances earlier in the year.
Nienaber also points to the fact that Wales average 36 caps per player in their squad and that experience counts for something.
On this tour Wales will be desperate to find their voice again after going well off key in the Six Nations. They lost four matches and finished on a low note by losing at home to Italy.
The Springboks, however, draw no comfort from the number of Ls that has most recently populated the Wales results column.
As ever with Bok coach Jacques Nienaber, the devil is in the detail and he was happy to point out that in their last three defeats Wales were within a score of winning.
As is the case with the Springboks, Nienaber keeps reminding, that franchise or club form does not predetermine results for the national team. Nienaber also points to the fact that Wales average 36 caps per player in their squad and that experience counts for something.
Still, the visitors travelled here tagged heavy underdogs. They are yet to beat the Springboks on their home patch but the same historical improbability did not deter Argentina and Ireland from recording victories here in 2015 and 2016 respectively.
Nienaber also points to the arm wrestle the Springboks and the Dragons have routinely engaged in over the last few years. Last year the Boks triumphed 23-18 at the Principality Stadium to snap an eight-year losing streak in Cardiff. In their meeting preceding that, the Boks prevailed in a nerve-jangling Rugby World Cup semifinal 19-16 in Tokyo. Only two of their last 15 Tests against each other produced a winner by more than 10 points.
As much as Wales are under the cosh and have their backs to the wall, it is SA who have more to lose on Saturday. The Springboks run out with home fans in attendance for the first time since 2019, perhaps burdened by the overwhelming expectation that they will win well.
For all the talk that their game is imperilled and that they lost to Italy in their last Test, instant redemption is on offer for Wales should they beat the World Champions.
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