If not now in Mbombela, then when?
Some may say the next week at Ellis Park, but those wise guys miss the point. If not a dominant Springboks Test win against the All Blacks in SA in Saturday’s Rugby Championship opener, then when?
The dominance is the relevance in my statement. The Springboks, World Cup winners in 2019, British and Irish Series winners in 2021 and most recently 2-1 series winners against Wales in SA, are the most settled Bok squad since the 2009 Boks dictated terms against all-comers.
The 2009 Springboks were a special group and they comfortably dealt with the All Blacks in back-to-back wins in SA. The Boks won 28-19 in Bloemfontein and Morne Steyn scored all 31 points in the 31-19 win in Durban. The Boks would also go to Hamilton, New Zealand and win 32-19 for a three-nil season shut out, which resulted in a Tri nations title.
The All Blacks recovered in 2010 and beat the Boks three times. The quality of players in both countries has proven historically how quickly both can turn a woeful year into a wonderful one.
For now, the All Blacks’ season has been woeful. They lost a Test in New Zealand to Ireland for the first time in history, lost a home series for the first time to Ireland in history, lost a three-Test series 2-1 after leading 1-0 for the first time since 1986 and lost a series for the first time since losing 2-0 against France in 1994.
The Springboks, after an awful first 40 minutes against Wales in the season opener in Pretoria, were more solid than spectacular in winning the decisive third and final Test in Cape Town.
Take them to the gutters as all they want to do is go to the dance floor — and they can dance ... But they don’t like the gutters.
— Rassie Erasmus before the 2019 World Cup quarterfinal against Japan
I got a sense they were building towards these two home Tests against the All Blacks in what will be the first time the New Zealanders have played successive Tests in the Republic since 2009.
The Springboks are favourites and it seems to have scared so many South African supporters on social media. It would appear South African rugby supporters love the tag of underdog because with it comes no expectation. In this instance there is no way the Boks can claim to be the underdogs, and neither should their supporters lean on such a crutch.
The Boks, as a unit, have never been more settled and the All Blacks have rarely been such a shambles. The New Zealand TAB, since its inception, has in 339 All Blacks matches only ever on three occasions listed the opposition as favourites to beat the All Blacks. All three times, the matches were in SA (1998 and 2009) and on all three occasions the bookies were right and the All Blacks lost. The New Zealand TAB has the Springboks favourites to beat the All Blacks on Saturday. It is just the fourth time in 340 matches they have not backed the All Blacks to be winners and they’ve never been wrong when backing against the All Blacks.
The All Blacks have an incredible rugby history and in the amateur and professional era have always been the most consistent winning team. No other nation comes close to their overall winning percentage. But they have endured cycles as bad as any of their rivals, and currently they are in such a cycle, with the lack of quality forwards and continued question marks over the ability of head coach Ian Foster. The All Blacks have lost five of their last eight Tests and won just two of their last six Tests against SA (1/2), Ireland (1/4) and France (0/1).
To quote Rassie Erasmus’s speech to the players on the eve of the 2019 World Cup quarterfinal against Japan: “Take them to the gutters as all they want to do is go to the dance floor — and they can dance ... But they don’t like the gutters.”
These All Blacks forwards don’t have the collective mongrel to be in the gutters. They lack the pedigree of the game’s best, Richie McCaw, and if the Boks play what is in front of them, which is a limited team, and not the legacy of the black jersey, they should win well.
And the biggest if is, if not on Saturday to make a statement in quality of performance against the All Blacks, then when?
Mark Keohane is the founder of keo.co.za, a multiple award-winning sports writer and the digital content director at Highbury Media. Twitter: @mark_keohane
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