Given their recent results it is not hard to arrive at the conclusion All Blacks rugby is on the operating table. It does not find itself there by accident. Systemic neglect and miscalculation brought them there.
Kiwis are almost zealously parochial in the way they protect their turf. Given their geographic location isolationist tendencies are perhaps understandable but in a rugby sense it is a disposition born from a superiority complex.
Forget for a moment the increasingly stronger currents in the north and indeed the waves caused from these shores, the position the All Blacks find themselves in is largely their own doing. Sure, they’ve been the game’s standard bearers, especially since the advent of professionalism, but continuing to do what might have worked for them previously without proper interrogation of succession plans and contingencies, smacks of arrogance.
Perhaps the long-held belief that they are best in the world clouded judgment and bred complacency.
New Zealand rugby is in trouble as the Springboks again reminded last weekend in Mbombela and even if the All Blacks manufacture a win at Ellis Park this weekend, their troubles are far from over.
Paradoxically, that may actually set them back for it may embolden their coach Ian Foster who, despite a huge payout, must now surely be in his final days as part of the All Blacks set-up.
While Springbok coach Jacques Nienaber continues to make minor adjustments as he plots and schemes towards next year’s RWC in France, Foster is in full survival mode. That much is evident in his selections for Saturday’s Test at Ellis Park.
It is not as if Foster inherited that problem from predecessor Steve Hansen. He was on the coaching staff, and presumably within earshot of the head coach, from 2012.
Scapegoats were easy to find in the aftermath of last weekend’s Test and the sight of the All Blacks scrum being marched back at the rate of knots must have been deeply distressing to the Kiwis.
With his team very much on the operating table Foster reached for the axe. He chose the most obvious path by chopping last week’s starting props for Ethan de Groot and Tyrel Lomax who have 17 Test caps between them.
To be fair, whether he selected last week’s miscreants or went with new blood in this Test is now almost immaterial. New Zealand simply don’t have the depth in the propping department to keep the Springboks in check. The absence of Joe Moody through long-term injury was a huge setback, while Nepo Laulala’s most recent orthopaedic upheaval further depleted their ranks.
That, however, does not mask the fact the Kiwis have not developed props in the way they perhaps should have over the past decade. Playing in a trans-Tasman competition against Australians, who view the scrum as purely a means to restart the game, will not address that fault line in their game.
It is not as if Foster inherited that problem from predecessor Steve Hansen. He was on the coaching staff, and presumably within earshot of the head coach, from 2012. Foster was perhaps in an ideal position to sound the alarm bells about the lack of depth and succession plans but the All Blacks’ ship rarely makes sharp turns.
In fact, that’s exactly why Foster inherited the job from Hansen.
The All Blacks were brought to this perilous point by a coach who benefited from a system that promotes from within. Hansen had that benefit and delivered a World Cup in 2015 but fell short at his next attempt.
New Zealand rugby had the opportunity to make a clean break when Hansen departed but persisted with a “steady as she goes” policy.
Foster swung the axe this week but his bosses may have to do the same next week, even if it costs an arm and a leg. This juncture presents them perhaps the ideal moment to start fostering a system in which the best man gets the job.
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