Forget history, these Springboks will be history makers in Auckland on Saturday.
The Boks’ historical return since the game went professional in 1996 has been minimal in New Zealand. The game’s greatest rivalry has, for the most part, been a one-horse race with the Boks too often still in the stables when the All Blacks were taking off through the gate.
The two teams have met 25 times, with the Boks winning just four and drawing one. That’s 20 wins for the All Blacks and a 16% winning return for the Boks in New Zealand.
History suggests the pain will belong to the Springboks, but if you delve slightly deeper history can be misleading. The Boks are world champions and have addressed history in New Zealand on their last two visits.
Eben Etzebeth ironically led the Boks in their biggest ever defeat in 2017 (57-0 at North Harbour’s Albany stadium across the Auckland Bridge).
The defeat that night represented the lowest point in a rivalry between the two nations that has exceeded 100 Tests.
What is relevant for the Boks is that in 2018 they beat the All Blacks 36-34 in Wellington and a year later drew 16-all, again in Wellington.
Etzebeth and his World Cup-winning teammates have experienced winning against the All Blacks in New Zealand. Mentally, they have it and the history that Bok coaches Jacques Nienaber and Rassie Erasmus will lean on is that the All Blacks have not beaten their squad in New Zealand. It is one Bok win and a draw since Erasmus and Nienaber took charge.
The All Blacks will draw on the fact that they could come to South Africa in 2018 and fight back from 30-13 at Loftus to win the Test in the final minute.
There is not much between the two starting XVs, but it is among the replacements where the Boks have a definitive edge.
They will also take inspiration from the 2022 monumental win against the Springboks at Ellis Park in Johannesburg. A week earlier the Boks had mauled the All Blacks into submission in Nelspruit, winning 26-10, but somehow New Zealand found their mojo a week later to fashion a 28 point turn around and silence 62,000 at Ellis Park.
That win was huge for the All Blacks and among the most disappointing of Bok performances, given the quality of the Boks match day 23.
All credit to the men in black. They had the mongrel, the intensity and desire. They had a mentality that the world champions could not match.
On Saturday the Boks get to right the wrongs of Ellis Park and they will be filthy with themselves that they did not bury the All Blacks at Ellis Park.
They get to change that at Mount Smart in Auckland, and I believe they have too much class and quality across the match-day squad to come unstuck.
The All Blacks have improved tremendously post the introduction of the Crusaders forwards coach Jason Ryan. They have added an edge to their physicality and their mindset. Ryan has got the forwards playing as forwards and not “want to be” backs. They were ruthless in the opening 30 minutes against Argentina in Mendoza, but not quite as good in the final 30 minutes.
Conversely, those Boks who played against Australia, did not give the Wallabies an inch and they set down a marker to the core of Saturday’s starting XV, who were already in New Zealand.
Both coaches have picked the best available match day 23s. Both will want the win in what will be the Rugby Championship decider, given the competition is over after just three single rounds.
There is not much between the two starting XVs, but it is among the replacements where the Boks have a definitive edge.
Defeat for New Zealand will hurt more than it would for the Boks, as the Kiwis are playing at home, but whoever wins on Saturday will land a psychological blow ahead of the 2023 World Cup in France in September and October.
I have the Boks to win by single digits in a fierce battle of the mind as much as the body.
I have them to win because I believe they are the better team.
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