Our Bok pack is better than theirs. The All Blacks backline is better than ours. Our bench is better than New Zealand’s. That is why the Springboks will win at Twickenham on Friday night.
I have been bullish in the past two seasons that the Boks would beat the All Blacks on every occasion, whether they were playing on Australia’s Gold Coast, in South Africa or in New Zealand.
This bullishness has not matched results, with the Boks taking double digits in points differential on two of the occasions, giving the All Blacks double digits in points differential in Nelspruit and the two matches in Australia decided by two points, one to the All Blacks with a 79th minute penalty and one to the Springboks a week later, courtesy of a 80th minute penalty.
Each time I look at the two line-ups, I just think there is too much quality in the Bok match 23 to lose. But somehow the Boks find a way to fold and New Zealand find a way to fire, and after five predictions it is 3-2 to the All Blacks.
The biggest two disappointments were in Johannesburg a year ago when a youthful and inexperienced All Blacks won, despite playing the final 10 minutes a player down and at altitude. They were the team that finished with seven points on the final buzzer.
At Mount Smart’s Stadium in Auckland earlier this season, it was again an opening 15 minute power play from the All Blacks that proved too damaging and the Boks couldn’t come back from trailing by 17-0.
To Twickenham we go for Friday night’s showdown between the two most successful teams in Rugby’s World Cup history. The two nations have won six of the nine World Cups, with three wins each and both have won the World Cup at home and away.
The All Blacks are the only team to defend the World Cup, with Richie McCaw leading them to gold in 2011 and 2015.
Now Siya Kolisi, like McCaw a talisman and icon of the international game, can lead the Boks to back-to-back World Cup successes.
It will be intense at Twickenham, and a capacity crowd will ensure a Test match atmosphere to rival anything produced in the previous 104 Tests between the two sides.
Both teams have selected close to their strongest line-ups for what some are calling a meaningless Test. Those who know the history of these two rivals, also know there can never be a contest between the two without meaning or relevance. It is in the historical DNA of both nations’ players. The lineage, of those who came before the current crop, does not allow for such insignificance in performance or result.
Both camps have promised to give it a rip and the common thread is that no-one would be wrapped in cotton wool for this match. It is the last hit out for both before their testing World Cup openers when the Boks play Scotland and the All Blacks play hosts France.
It will be intense at Twickenham, and a capacity crowd will ensure a Test match atmosphere to rival anything produced in the previous 104 Tests between the two sides.
The only time they’ve played at Twickenham was in the 2015 World Cup semifinal and it was a Test worthy of a dramatic final. Dan Carter proved the difference as the All Blacks won 20-18.
The All Blacks in 2023 have been very good and the Springboks have been a mixture of very good and not so good.
Mentally, there will be gains for the winners on Friday night, though an ideal result would be a draw, as both camps would take that kind of result.
I don’t see the match being scripted to end with handshakes and no loser, so I have to back the Bok pack and the Bok reserve pack to prove too strong in the opening 20 and too destructive in the final 20 against an All Blacks team capable of scoring three or four tries by way of their backs.
If I picked a combination team, only lock Scott Barrett would make the starting eight and not one Springbok back would make the starting backs.
The point of difference would be the eight substitutes. I wouldn’t pick one of the All Blacks reserves over the Bok eight. As one example, the Boks have RG Snyman and the All Blacks have Josh Lord to cover lock!
Historically, the average score favours the All Blacks 21-16 in 104 Test matches. The breakdown of the All Blacks 62 wins, the Springboks 38 wins and the four draws is that the All Blacks win by 10 at home, the All Blacks win by 1 in South Africa, and they win by five on neutral ground.
I am going to back against history and call a Springboks win, by more than five, on neutral ground, and I am confident because of the collective strength and potential impact of the substitute’s bench.
Boks by 10.
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