DAVID ISAACSON | Superstition, lucky charms, whatever it takes to get the Boks over the line

The psyche of sports fans is a complex thing that could probably keep psychologists busy for the next few centuries, assuming the world still exists then.

Just look at South African supporters. The Springboks lose to Ireland in their Rugby World Cup (RWC) group match and we say it was a well-timed wake-up call and we’re still going to win the tournament.

Then the Proteas make a near-perfect start to the Cricket World Cup (CWC) with a convincing triumph over Sri Lanka and we start fearing that it was almost too perfect.

And yet we should be wondering whether there could be a rugby-cricket double in store for us, as there was for Australia in 1999. In both tournaments we were eliminated by the blasted Aussies — the cricketers in that traumatic tie in Edgbaston and then the Boks in extra time at Twickenham.

This is probably our best chance of a double in 24 years. Dare we dream?

But for a few moments here and there, it could have been South Africa’s double.

This is probably our best chance of a double in 24 years. Dare we dream?

But if we do, surely we will jinx it straight up. I mean, that’s what every South African sports fan is thinking, right?

I remember as a 14-year-old fan looking ahead to the finale of the club rugby season in Cape Town, where my team, Villagers, was in the running for both the league honours and the knockout competition.

I was irritated when one of the local papers mentioned that Villagers were aiming for the double. They’re going to ruin our chances, I thought.

Somehow Villagers managed to dodge the jinx and lifted the Grand Challenge and the Ohlsson’s Shield.

Sport can turn an atheist into a religious being, and make a rational human into a superstitious wreck.

If we knew that giving up meat or chocolate doughnuts for a week would help the Boks and the Proteas, we’d probably do it happily.

And everybody who wears their lucky necklaces, T-shirts and underpants for big occasions will putting those items on come Sunday.

I have no doubt that the Ireland vs New Zealand and South Africa vs France quarterfinal showdowns are actually the semifinals. The two winners will end up facing off in the final.

There seems to be a strong school of thought that the final could see the Boks taking on the All Blacks.

Look, it’s not impossible, but the odds are against this.

In the nine editions of the RWC to date, teams that lost group matches reached the final on only three occasions — England did it twice, losing out in 1991 and 2007, and the triumphant South Africans four years ago.

More pertinently, of the 36 semifinalists since this tournament started in 1987, only seven have lost pool matches. That’s a 19.4% chance of just one of the Boks and All Blacks getting through to the semifinals.

England was the first in 1991, and then in 2007 they and France made the top four. In 2011 Wales reached the semifinals and in 2015 it was the Boks and Argentina.

What about both of them?

As you can see, two beaten teams made the semifinals on two occasions — when England and France got there in 2007 and when South Africa and Argentina made the top four in 2015. The odds of that happening are 11.1%.

But wiggle the statistics around and you’ll find there’s a more impressive 33.33% chance of a beaten team making the final. Heck, that’s a pass mark in South Africa.

And then I think back to that 1995 RWC semifinal against France in a waterlogged Durban and how the French claimed they were robbed because of a disallowed try and I hope to hell that Sunday doesn’t turn out to be karma. Or what if the rugby gods simply want France, losing finalists on three occasions, to win? 

So whether you like statistics or superstition, there’s plenty going for the Boks — over and above the players and Rassie Erasmus, et al.

But still, haul out your lucky charms and perform those lucky rituals and dances to help the boys over the line.

And we’ll do it all again for the Proteas, especially later this month.