Ireland are in Marseille for this evening’s Six Nations opener against France, but already the roar of the All Blacks coming to South Africa later this year is turning the Six Nations occasion into a whisper.
The World Cup final replay is a bigger occasion than that between two beaten World Cup quarter-finalists.
The Springboks and All Blacks, in a dramatic World Cup final in Paris in 2023, reaffirmed there is only one rivalry in world rugby that puts the whole rugby world on notice.
It is a fact, supported by the following statistic: 94 million globally tuned into the 2023 World Cup final between international rugby’s greatest foes. The context to this record-breaking audience is that 69 million watched the hosts France crash out of the World Cup against the champion Springboks.
The Springboks are at their strongest and most consistent in the professional era, having won back-to-back World Cup titles. The All Blacks, winners of the 2011 and 2015 World Cup, are on the rise after a momentary stumble with Ian Foster at the helm.
Scott Robertson, a former All Blacks loose-forward, who coached the Crusaders to seven successive Super Rugby titles, is in charge of the All Blacks for the next four years.
Robertson is already endorsing his squad’s Rugby Championship challenge in South Africa this year. It doesn’t get bigger for the All Blacks than playing the Springboks in South Africa, and it doesn’t get tougher than playing an in-form world champion Springboks at altitude.
South African rugby fans, north and south, will be treated to the biggest two-Test series of the year, with the All Blacks in Cape Town for the first time since 2017.
New Zealand, historically, has dominated the rivalry since the sport turned professional in 1996. South Africa, before that, held sway in head-to-head matches. But since Rassie Erasmus and Jacques Nienaber took over coaching the Boks in 2018, the two teams have been separated by a point.
Both have also shown an ability to win in the other’s country, with the Springboks successful in Wellington and the All Blacks victorious in Pretoria and Johannesburg.
The spoils were shared one-all in Australia when the Covid pandemic forced the Rugby Championship to be played there, and on other neutral grounds the Boks hold a two-one advantage since 2018. It is also one-all in the past two World Cups, with the Boks losing the 2019 pool opener but winning the one that mattered most, the 2023 final.
South African rugby fans, north and south, will be treated to the biggest two-Test series of the year, with the All Blacks in Cape Town for the first time since 2017.
That Test match was the last time the two teams met at the famed Newlands, with the All Blacks winning 25-24. The match at Cape Town’s DHL Stadium will be a first for the All Blacks and for any New Zealand team.
SA Rugby can charge whatever they want for tickets for both Tests and it would sell out, and commercially these two Tests are cash cows.
It would be the ultimate to have a third Test, which would increase the probability of a series win, but that may come in time as the two nations piggyback off each other’s market value and global standing.
The two nations have won seven of the 10 World Cups, with the Boks leading the All Blacks four-three and they would be a sell-out no matter the city.
The All Blacks, once spooked by Ellis Park, have grown to love the ground and in 2022 they scored a dramatic win after taking a beating in Nelspruit the previous week.
Ellis Park is the stage on August 31 and a week later it will be Cape Town’s turn to experience the game’s biggest showdown.
In between now and then the Boks will play Ireland in a two-Test series and the All Blacks will host England. Then there is the mandatory match-up for both teams against Australia and Argentina in the Rugby Championship.
For those in the northern hemisphere, the highlight is Friday night’s match in Marseille and my feeling is that whoever wins that match will win the Six Nations.
I have France to beat Ireland — and do it by more than a point.
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