SA Rugby will approach D-Day on Friday with the spectre of plan B, albeit distantly, looming large.
The bid to secure the Ackerley Sports Group (ASG) as an equity partner will be put to the test at a meeting of the general council.
Much has been said and written about the proposed deal which will see SA Rugby part with a 20% commercial interest for R1.35bn, but opinions remain divided on whether it will serve the local game in the long run.
Depending on who you speak to, the deal will catapult rugby in South Africa into the stratosphere or plunge it into the abyss.
SA Rugby has been desperate to stress the proposed deal with the Americans isn't just about the cash but its partner's ability to unlock commercial opportunity beyond its reach.
Detractors of the deal warn SA Rugby is about to enter into a loan agreement that will place it under considerable financial burden. It is however a point the governing body has been keen to dispel, reiterating they only need to repay once the new commercial entity turns a profit.
The problem SA Rugby faces, however, is convincing 75% of its affiliates that the deal is good for all in rugby's local ecosystem. That task is made particularly onerous given the desire of several provincial franchise owners to be part of an equity deal with SA Rugby.
Provincial investors Johann Rupert, Patrice Motsepe, Marco Masotti and the Le Roux family, among others, are not in the business of passing up a buck. Their ownership and range of influence extends into the smaller unions and the likes of Boland and Southwestern Districts are likely to throw their in lot with the unions in the major metropolitan areas.
SA Rugby requires 10 of the 13 eligible provincial affiliates to vote in favour of the deal for it to get the green light.
On the eve of the then-postponed vote in October SA Rugby appeared short of that mark after several unions, spearheaded by those who hold franchise licences, announced their displeasure with elements of the deal. They red-flagged, among other things, the financial structure of the deal, exorbitant commissions and ASG's ability to raise the cash.
This is a watershed moment for rugby in South Africa as we attempt to ‘globalise’ the Springbok brand in the way that our peers in New Zealand have
— Rian Oberholzer
SA Rugby on Wednesday defended the deal in front of parliament's portfolio committee on sport, arts and culture, but questions unrelated to whether the deal is sound or not remain.
In the meantime, SA Rugby is ploughing ahead, hoping for the best.
“We are pleased to have arrived at this point and believe we will be able to table an offer to our members that makes commercial and business sense,” said SA Rugby CEO Rian Oberholzer.
“This is a watershed moment for rugby in South Africa as we attempt to ‘globalise’ the Springbok brand in the way our peers in New Zealand have.”
However, the portents before Friday's meeting appear grim, especially with no clear path to a replacement deal anywhere near the table. Local investors with designs on a deal of their own have been frustrated by SA Rugby and ASG's exclusivity period for negotiations. That ends this month.
In the absence of the immediate implementation of a plan B, SA Rugby, by its own admission, faces belt tightening initiatives if the deal doesn't get the thumbs up. SA Rugby president Mark Alexander suggested it will be back to the drawing board.
The long-term problem for SA Rugby, however, is though it may well be in possession of the drawing board, its provincial affiliates hold the chalk and duster.
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