Big matches in rugby are invariably won off the kicking tee and if the Sharks are to stun the Bulls in Pretoria on Saturday then it will be because they have two of the most accurate goalkickers in the Vodacom United Rugby Championship this season.
The Sharks won the Currie Cup last season thanks to the booming boot of Jordan Hendrikse, who nailed his penalty from 55 metres to win the final against the Lions at Emirates Airline Park with the last kick of the game.
It would have been a bittersweet moment for Hendrikse, who had previously played all his professional rugby at the Lions.
Hendrikse, who has alternated between flyhalf and fullback in this season’s URC, will start in the No 15 jersey in a very depleted Sharks line-up, with 19 players unavailable for selection.
More of that in a bit.
Hendrikse, who made his Test debut for the Springboks last season and averaged 75 percent off the tee, is the second most accurate South African goalkicker in the league. He has also made the most attempts, with his 33 conversion and penalty kicks yielding an 84% return.
The Bulls, with seven wins from nine league starts, must be the favourites to reverse the Durban result, but if there is to be a miracle it must come from the respective boots of Hendrikse and Masuku.
What makes Hendrikse’s return so impressive is that he often attempts kicks from 50-plus metres.
The only South African goalkicker more accurate than Hendrikse this season is teammate Siya Masuku, who will start at flyhalf against the Bulls. Masuku is averaging 92 percent in accuracy, but he has had just 12 attempts at posts. Masuku's accuracy puts him first among the league’s kickers with more than 10 attempts.
Leinster’s new Ireland No 10 Sam Prendergast is the only other player with a plus 90 percent average, but his goalkicking has also come from just 11 kicks.
The Sharks, who edged the Bulls in the first of their two derbies in Durban, are without Springbok regulars Siya Kolisi, Eben Etzebeth, Ox Nche, Jaden Hendrikse, André Esterhuizen and Makazole Mapimpi and Scottish hooker Dylan Richardson. There is also no Vincent Koch in the match 23.
The Bulls, with seven wins from nine league starts, must be the favourites to reverse the Durban result, but if there is to be a miracle it must come from the respective boots of Hendrikse and Masuku.
The Bulls, who know their way to the try line, have traditionally had the best goalkickers in their ranks. One thinks of the legendary Naas Botha in the 1980s and in the past two decades they had Derick Hougaard, Morne Steyn and Handré Pollard kicking between 80 and 90 percent. Steyn was without comparison.
David Kriel, 72 percent, and Boeta Chamberlain, 70 percent, are the go-to options on Saturday and regular flyhalf Johan Goosen, when he was fit, goaled 70 percent of his 10 goal kicks.
I have the Bulls to win comfortably, more because of the absence of those key Springbok forwards in the Sharks pack.
The Stormers, a failed conversion away from the most remarkable fightback and victory against the Bulls in Cape Town a week ago, will also rely heavily on the boot of Jurie Matthee, who plays flyhalf in the enforced absence of Manie Libbok, Sasha Feinberg-Mngomezulu and Damian Willemse.
The irony of the Stormers’ 33-32 defeat against the Bulls in Cape Town was that it was the first time Matthee had missed a kick in this season’s URC. He had 11 conversions and penalties from 11 attempts before missing a penalty, hitting the post with a conversion and being timed out on a conversion. He kicked one conversion after that to be 12 from 15 for the league season (80%) and 18 from 23 for all competitions (78%).
Outside Matthee, only Willemse and Libbok have had more than 10 attempts and it is utility back Willemse with the standout average of 82 percent that leads, with Libbok a disappointing eight from 16 for 50 percent.
Kade Wolhuter, the former Western Province and Stormers No 10, is the leading marksman, in accuracy, for the Lions and he is also the only Lions player with more than 10 attempts in the league this season. His average is 75%.
In the league, among the 16 teams, two kickers are in the 90s and eight are in the 80s, for those who have taken aim more than 10 times.
The value of a goalkicker with an accuracy plus 80% can’t be overstated and while the Stormers and Lions have the ability to score lots of tries, Matthee’s boot could also be the determining factor in Johannesburg in the early South African derby on Saturday
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