The prospect of South Africa hosting a Rugby World Cup any time soon remains remote.
With Australia and the US set to host the 2027 and 2031 editions, the 2035 instalment is the first still up for grabs, but the country is unlikely to throw its hat into the ring for that event.
Recent government utterances gave rise to hope that South Africa may be prepared to make a play for the 2035 or 2039 tournaments, but that is unlikely to see the light of day.
“Rugby is big business,” deputy minister of sport, arts and culture Peace Mabe told IOL. “The economic spin-offs in terms of tourism will be big. If [SA] Rugby says we are going to host in South Africa, it will fill up hotels with immediate effect, they would be booked. We would appreciate that type of initiative.
“But we are the No. 1 team in the world, so we also don’t want to be seen as bullies by taking the hosting away from the world. Let’s share with them.”
The Springboks may well be hot property and on top of the world, but hosting a World Cup comes at a huge cost.
SA Rugby is all too aware of the fiscal pressures the government is facing in delivering basic services to ordinary South Africans and that paying astronomical guarantees for hosting rights may not sit well with the general populace.
The country may have some fantastic stadiums, but by the time the 2035 or 2039 come around they will be in need of serious upgrades. General infrastructural investment will also have to be undertaken.
The last time SA Rugby bid for a World Cup the country had to provide a R4bn guarantee. What countries have to cough up to host the game's biggest spectacle in 2035 isn't clear yet, but it will be significantly more than the asking rate for the 2023 instalment.
No deadline has been set for countries to officially express interest in hosting the 2035 tournament. As things stand SA Rugby is unlikely to engage the government to chart a path towards submitting a bid.
SA Rugby is also all too aware of the vagaries of a bidding process that may not always be transparent. Their failed bids for the 2011 and 2023 World Cups stung.
In 2017 when they last bid to host a World Cup along with France and Ireland, SA Rugby unexpectedly fell short after producing the most compelling bid book for the 2023 World Cup.
The Rugby World Cup board had recommended South Africa as their preferred host with the country scoring highest in their executive summary.
South Africa were the front runners after their bid was named the preferred one, but France came up with R6.2bn guarantee, of which R3.7bn was a bank guarantee designated for tournament running costs.
World Rugby's council voted in favour of France over South Africa after Ireland dropped out of the first round of voting.
France was accused of skulduggery in the way they procured votes at the 11th hour. The process by which hosting rights are allocated was brought into question in the aftermath.
Many rightly asked why the World Cup board came up with their preferred choice.
SA Rugby cannot be blamed if they are a little bid shy as a result. It would be understandable if their appetite for hosting the World Cup is diminished.
While there is little doubt South Africa with its well established organisational skills can successfully host a World Cup, the ground rules will have to shift significantly if the country is to express an interest.
No deadline has been set for countries to officially express interest in hosting the 2035 tournament. As things stand SA Rugby is unlikely to engage the government to chart a path towards submitting a bid.
Though no firm expressions of interest have hit World Rugby's inbox, Spain appears keen to submit a bid. They have shown a rapid rise in the world order and the prospect of playing World Cup matches at the Santiago Bernabéu Stadium and Barcelona's Camp Nou may be compelling for some on World Rugby's council.
It has also been reported that Rugby Asia has thrown its weight behind a potential joint bid involving Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates for the 2035 instalment.
For now it seems, the record four-time champions Springboks will have to be content to lift the Webb Ellis Cup on foreign soil.
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