Delta alert: world needs urgent response to Covid’s most infectious variant

At the weekend Sydney was put under a mandatory stay-at-home order for two weeks in response to the risk posed by the Covid-19 Delta variant. This came as a surprise to many, especially those who rightly view Australia as having been among the best at managing the virus, with its very low infections, hospitalisations and deaths.

Australia was not the only recent Covid-19 surprise in advanced countries. Israel, long a vaccination leader, reimposed an indoor mask requirement on Friday. Again the catalyst was the Delta variant. Then there was the UK, which, other than India, has been battling the longest against the variant. According to government reports, the number of Delta infections rose 46% in one week. Indeed, whether it is the evidence from there or the reactions of Australia and Israel, four issues should be front and centre for many more countries, including the US, which need to realise that new Covid-19 risks are likely and do not respect borders.

Spread and incidence

The ability of the Delta variant to spread fast and deep has surprised many. It is the most infectious variant so far, especially among non-vaccinated segments of populations. But it also hits the vaccinated, including the doubled-jabbed who, according to UK data, made up as much as 20% of those infected with it.

Health consequences

Fortunately, the health consequences of the Delta variant in advanced countries appear less severe so far. This is due in part to a better understanding of Covid-19 some 18 months into the pandemic. But most important is vaccination: while it has not totally broken the link between infections on the one hand and hospitalisations and deaths on the other, it has significantly weakened it. So far, a lot fewer of those testing positive have ended up in hospital or worse because they were vaccinated. Uncertainty remains, however, about the risks of “long Covid-19” effects.

Policy reactions

Government policy reactions have varied significantly and not just because of different vaccination rates. Important behavioural judgments appear to be in play, as well as issues about policy acceptance and effectiveness.

As of now, the incremental economic damage associated with the Delta variant in advanced countries appears limited, especially when compared with India, where it originated and has been causing widespread human tragedies.

Sydney, with a relatively low vaccination rate, took strong measures despite a very low absolute number of infections. Israel and the UK have high vaccination rates, but have differed in their reactions, with Israel tightening guidelines, but the UK maintaining its reopening narrative. (England did delay by a month the final stage of the reopening road map, with similar actions by Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales. Importantly, it has also stepped up in the already-impressive vaccination effort there, with pop-up vaccination centres that don’t require a reservation appearing nationwide.)

Economic circumstances

As of now, the incremental economic damage associated with the Delta variant in advanced countries appears limited, especially when compared with India, where it originated and has been causing widespread human tragedies.

Though there are recent examples around the world of significant disruptions because of new waves of Covid-19 (Bangladesh being this weekend’s most striking example), there is little to suggest now that Delta itself is particularly damaging economically and financially in the advanced world. While it is still early when it comes to the potential global spread, and it will spread, many countries have become much better at navigating these waves.

No matter how the four factors evolve, it is hard to deny two general but important conclusions.

First, Delta is another illustration that the pandemic will not end suddenly. Instead, the world will need to continue to adapt to the reality of living with an endemic for a while — that is, a virus that is proving hard to fully eradicate. With improved private and public health practices and guidelines, living in this age of an endemic virus can be a lot less threatening to lives and livelihoods.

It is not just a government responsibility, as important as this is. It also places an important obligation on individuals to adhere consistently and fully to what the UK government has labelled 'hand, face, space' health practices.

Governments must reinforce their efforts to win all three races in this historical pushback against Covid-19. Winning just one or two is not sufficient. Specifically, victory is needed in crushing infections, minimising variants and accelerating full vaccination. It is not just a government responsibility, as important as this is. It also places an important obligation on individuals to adhere consistently and fully to what the UK government has labelled “hand, face, space” health practices.

Second, there is no sure way for one country to protect itself from Covid-19 threats coming from outside. Think of this weekend’s Sydney news. With New Zealand, Australia has taken the most restrictive approach to cross-border human interactions among the advanced economies, imposing quite a range of inconveniences on citizens. It has enforced strict limits on inward and outward travel, subjected those travelling to Australia to quotas, as well as harsh quarantine rules and practices, and has a population that has been impressively understanding, supportive and compliant. Yet Sydney was again shut down, not as a quick circuit breaker, but for a longer period.

The only way to ensure wellbeing is to go back to the mantra that “no one is safe until everyone is safe”. Further vigilance in advanced countries needs to be accompanied by greater assistance to those that are poorer and less well-organised to improve everyone’s durable protection against Covid-19.

Mohamed A El-Erian is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. He is president of Queens’ College, Cambridge; chief economic adviser at Allianz SE, the parent company of Pimco where he served as CEO and co-CIO; and chair of Gramercy Fund Management. His books include The Only Game in Town and When Markets Collide.

— Bloomberg Opinion. More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com/opinion