Superheroes have lost their power over superfans in the pandemic era

Walt Disney’s premiere of Marvel’s Eternals looked like business as usual for a superhero movie. Hollywood Boulevard was jammed with costumed fanboys and fangirls, watching Angelina Jolie and the film’s other stars pose for photos.

But that’s where the similarities may end. In the past, Marvel films frequently brought in $100m (about R1,5bn) or more in opening weekend ticket sales domestically. Eternals will probably open to much less this weekend, the latest film to miss that bar in the pandemic era. 

After shelving movies while cinemas were closed, studios are finally releasing their big-budget pictures, only to confront pandemic-wary audiences and a changed theatrical world, with even Marvel feeling the pinch. 

Eternals is projected to take in ticket sales of $67m to $92m (about R1bn to R1,4bn) in its opening weekend in North America, according to Boxoffice, which tracks the industry. “Mixed critical reviews” led the website to cut its original forecast by 12%.

Disney is estimating sales of $75m (about R1,1bn). That would put Eternals third or fourth among the year’s biggest debuts and in line with, say, 2013’s Thor: The Dark World, which was also released in November.

“This might be one that doesn’t work as well for them,” said Doug Creutz, an analyst at US investment bank Cowen & Co. 

While theme parks are bustling and people are returning to restaurants, movie fans are wondering whether they need to see a picture in a cinema, especially with all of the streaming options available.

No one is hitting home runs in the movie business these days. Of the top films this year, only a couple approach what might have been a bona fide hit in years past. Universal Pictures’ F9: The Fast Saga took $721m (about R11bn) globally this year. The new James Bond film, No Time to Die, has brought in $608m (about R9,2bn).

While theme parks are bustling and people are returning to restaurants, movie fans are wondering whether they need to see a picture in a cinema, especially with all of the streaming options available.

Marvel mostly adhered to its tried and true formula for Eternals — a buzzy director (Academy Award winner Chloe Zhao) leading a diverse cast in a $200m (about R3bn) production that spared no expense visually.

Eternals features a gay character and a deaf character, and is based on a comic series that began in 1976. It’s about a group of superheroes who secretly lived on Earth for thousands of years to protect it against the so-called Deviants.

“It has a lot of things going for it,” said Rich Gelfond, CEO of Imax, the big-screen theatre company.

But the movie also suffers from the worst reviews yet for a film from the Marvel Cinematic Universe, with just 54% of critics recommending it, according to Rotten Tomatoes. 

The beleaguered theatrical industry regained its footing last month when it showed younger fans can be enticed to visit cinemas again to see films such as Sony’s Venom: Let There Be Carnage. October set a pandemic-era box office high in North America, thanks in part to a film slate jammed with big-budget movies resembling a summer line-up. 

Even with a muted debut, Eternals is likely to be one of the top-grossing films this year, though it may fall short of Marvel’s better-reviewed Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings and Black Widow. Monthly North American grosses are still below what they were pre-pandemic. 

The good news for cinema chains is that Eternals will be exclusively in cinemas for at least 45 days and that should attract more of those costumed Marvel superfans.

— Bloomberg News. More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com