North Korea did an amazing job of keeping Covid out. Or it lied

Few health experts believe North Korea managed to keep out Covid-19 since early 2020. So when Kim Jong-un confirmed the nation’s first case on Thursday, the question was: “Why now?”

Kim has long trumpeted his virus-control measures as evidence of his nation’s superiority, calling the efforts a “shining success”. He sealed the border, crippling an already anaemic economy and banned athletes from two Olympics. To keep the disease out, his troops even shot, killed and burnt the body of a South Korean government employee who drifted near a nautical border.

All along outsiders speculated that Covid-19 was in North Korea, despite its isolation. The commander of US Forces Korea said as early as July 2020 the virus had almost certainly made its way into the country and China and Russia had reported outbreaks near their borders with North Korea. 

Now, after 520-million cases worldwide, North Korea has acknowledged that Covid-19 has arrived, leaving Turkmenistan the only nation still claiming to have zero cases. Kim, wearing a mask, ordered all cities to lock down on Thursday after a hastily called politburo meeting. 

North Korea watchers said Kim probably disclosed the outbreak because it’s too big to hide and it’s more important now to appear as if he’s responding quickly. He has reason to worry it could be devastating: the country has so far refused all foreign vaccines, leaving its 26-million people vulnerable to even mild strains in a nation where healthcare is already unreliable. 

The decision to come clean about infections indicated it would no longer “be plausible to continue with their zero-Covid claims”, tweeted Ankit Panda, a senior fellow in the nuclear policy programme at the US’s Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

North Korea should be able to keep the public in order. It maintains one of the most repressive systems on the planet, with a slew of political prisons for those who fall out of line or dare to question the legitimacy of its leaders.

A widespread outbreak in the capital Pyongyang, where about one in 10 North Koreans live, would hit elite members of the regime who are relatively more informed about global affairs. A lockdown in the city this week led to panic buying in stores and long lines for public transport.

Still, Kim is probably confident the outbreak can be managed, according to Rachel Minyoung Lee, a non-resident fellow with the 38 North Program at the Stimson Center in the US. 

“The North Korean leadership likely felt that acknowledging an outbreak in a timely manner — and showing the public that the leadership was responding quickly — was necessary for effectively controlling the situation and seeking the people’s cooperation in the regime’s stepped-up quarantine efforts,” said Lee, who worked as an analyst for the CIA’s Open Source Enterprise for almost two decades.

There are plenty of places where the virus could’ve entered North Korea. While airports have largely been shut during the pandemic, the regime reopened a rail link with China in January and black-market traders frequently cross the border. A UN body has said satellite images show sea traffic at its main international port of Nampho and illicit trade is conducted on open seas in violation of sanctions. 

In the meantime, North Korea has held several large-scale gatherings, including a military parade last month that included tens of thousands of maskless soldiers, a maskless leader and maskless masses.

Still, North Korea should be able to keep the public in order. It maintains one of the most repressive systems on the planet, with a slew of political prisons for those who fall out of line or dare to question the legitimacy of its leaders. The regime was able to weather a famine in the 1990s that some estimates said killed as many as 3.5-million people over a number of years.

Over the course of the pandemic Kim’s regime has tried to show its people that it takes public health seriously, even going to extremes to make the point. In July 2020 it locked down the border city of Kaesong out of fear a person who defected from South Korea may have carried the virus. It investigated the military unit responsible for patrols and pledged to “administer a severe punishment” to those responsible, official media said.

China’s foreign ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian on Thursday said Beijing could help Pyongyang in its fights against the virus. 

“As the DPRK’s comrade, neighbour and friend, China is ready to provide all-out effort for the DPRK’s fight against pandemic at any time,” Zhao told a regular briefing in Beijing, referring to North Korea by its formal name.

It’s unclear if that will include vaccines. North Korea’s official media has included commentary that vaccines may not prove effective against new virus variants, potentially an attempt to paper over the country’s lack of doses. The propaganda apparatus has focused on showing Kim thoroughly engaged in halting infections, perhaps to deflect blame to lower-ranking officials if the disease spreads. 

KCNA echoed that line on Thursday.

Even as Kim expressed confidence that North Korea would beat the virus, he said the “more dangerous enemy” was “unscientific fear, lack of faith and weak will”.

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— Bloomberg