SA's economy beats expectations, ends year on a strong note
The South African economy grew 3.1% during the fourth quarter compared with the previous quarter - putting growth for the year at 1.3%‚ beating Treasury’s and other forecasts.
Compared with a year earlier‚ gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 1.5% in the fourth quarter of 2017.
Treasury had expected a growth of 1% for the year.
The largest positive contributor to fourth-quarter growth was the remarkable recovery in the agriculture‚ forestry and fisheries sector‚ which increased 37.5% and contributed 0.8 of a percentage point to GDP growth.
The trade‚ catering and accommodation industry grew 4.8% and contributed 0.6 of a percentage point.
The primary sector (which includes agriculture and mining) increased by 4.9%‚ the secondary sector (manufacturing‚ electricity and construction) grew by 3.1% and the tertiary sector (trade‚ transport‚ finance‚ government and personal services) grew by 2.7% compared with the third quarter.
This signals that the country’s economy is poised for a recovery.
It is a vast improvement on the dismal 0.3% GDP growth achieved in 2016 but still remains weak by the country’s historic standards.
In the third quarter‚ the economy grew by 2% quarter on quarter‚ demonstrating a resilience that suggested it was in better shape than most economists had previously thought.
Expenditure on real GDP increased by 3.1% in the fourth quarter of 2017‚ while final consumption expenditure by general government increased by 1.3%.
Treasury is forecasting growth to rise to 1.5% in 2018 on political and policy certainty‚ renewed confidence and rising private fixed investment.
Finance minister Nhlanhla Nene said on Monday that it was likely that the growth forecasts would be revised upwards due to improved business and investor confidence.
Growth for 2016 was revised up to 0.6% from 0.3%. Third-quarter GDP growth in 2017 was revised higher‚ from 2% to 2.3%.
The changes were based on better access to data sets‚ said Statistics SA deputy director-general Joe de Beer.
The revisions indicate that SA wasn’t actually plunged into a recession last year. A recession is based on two consecutive quarters of negative growth.
The performance in the fourth quarter of 2016 has been revised from a 0.3% contraction to growth of 0.4%.