No festive cheer ahead for the rand, Nedbank says

An expected seasonal dollar-liquidity crunch means the outlook for South Africa’s rand is anything but merry as the year draws to a close.

Funding requirements of large European and Japanese banks going into year-end, together with the Federal Reserve’s tighter monetary policy, will probably lead to greater demand for dollars and rising offshore funding costs, according to Mehul Daya and Walter de Wet, strategists at Nedbank Group Ltd. in Johannesburg. That would weigh on the rand, one of the emerging world’s most-traded currencies, they wrote in a note to clients.

“Global dollar-liquidity shortages, both structural and seasonal, remain a key risk to the outlook for the rand,” said Daya and De Wet, who correctly predicted in June that South Africa’s currency could weaken to above 14 per dollar as global financial conditions became more restrictive. “Greater demand for US dollars and rising offshore US dollar funding costs, accompanied by currency volatility, will likely not bode well for the carry trade.”

Their call: “We expect the rand to be volatile, with a weakening bias toward the 14.50 rand area in the short term.” The currency gained 0.7% to 14.3862 per dollar at 7:32 a.m. Tuesday after sliding 0.8% the previous day. It has lost 14% against the dollar this year, more than any emerging-market peer except Argentina’s peso, Turkey’s lira and Russia’s ruble.

Nedbank is echoing concerns raised by the South African Reserve Bank in its biannual Financial Stability Review last week, when it said that tightening financial conditions are a “medium-likelihood” but potentially “high-impact” risk which would result in a repricing of assets, exchange-rate deterioration and rising debt.

South Africa’s currency is particularly vulnerable to emerging-market selloffs triggered by rising borrowing costs in developed countries. Daily trading in the rand is equal to about 18% of the country’s gross domestic product, according to Renaissance Capital. By that measure, it is the most liquid currency in the world, making it easy for traders to take bets — and offload them in a risk-off environment.

The dollar squeeze, which has seen Bloomberg’s gauge of the greenback rise 8.8% since February, may worsen in 2019, according to Moody’s Investors Service.

“Global financial conditions will continue to tighten in 2019 as monetary policy normalization gradually proceeds in advanced economies, particularly in the US,” Moody’s analysts including Anne van Praagh, Alastair Wilson and Elena Dugg wrote in a report. Emerging markets such as those like South Africa, which have limited scope to raise interest rates, “will remain vulnerable to spillovers” from “a likely further tightening of global liquidity,” they said.

- Bloomberg