SA's oil and gas industry could be the kind of game changer for the local economy that mining was, says Niall Kramer, head of the South African Oil and Gas Alliance (Saoga).
But government bungling, greed (the government insisted on a 20% state-carried interest) and policy uncertainty have kept the major international players away from what are thought to be some of the best opportunities in Africa.
"We have had the constipating factor of the Mineral and Petroleum Resource Development Amendment Bill," Kramer says.
The bill has been stuck in a legislative quagmire since 2013, stalling the industry while other African countries, notably Mozambique, have attracted multibillion-rand investments.
"The delay and uncertainty around the [bill] has been hugely damaging," Kramer says.
But new ministers of energy and of mineral resources, and the government's proposed withdrawal of the bill along with a commitment to develop a separate policy framework for the oil and gas sectors has breathed new life into the corpse.
A major oil and gas conference in Cape Town recently was a strong indicator of interest in SA, and the French global oil giant Total has announced it will start exploration drilling 180km off Mossel Bay next month.
Suddenly, there is hope.
$150m+
The cost of sinking one exploratory hole in the seabed
"We're still not sure what the geology will offer but above-the-ground conditions in SA are very favourable from a logistics and communications point of view," says Kramer, who was an art teacher in a previous life before joining the industry in 1990.
"We are well connected with the rest of the world. It's an easy place to do business."
And there are signs of the policy certainty, clarity and attractiveness Saoga has been requesting for years. "Now we need to think about what do we do when the legislation is in place. How do we activate benefit for SA?"
Business readiness needs to be looked at, skills need to be in place and policy needs to be harmonised.
Kramer says he was "circumspect" about the industry's chances before Jeff Radebe, the sixth energy minister in less than five years, was appointed six months ago.
"I'm much less circumspect now, when companies come to talk to us around what they call their 'de-risking and readiness' discussions."
In the gap between exploration and possible production, these companies will have to start developing skills and making it clear what local services they're going to want.
"We're far more ready than we thought we were. We have skills and existing businesses that can easily pivot into the plethora of supply services in the value chain, from light engineering and marine skills to security, construction, fencing, helicopter services, safety equipment."
Kramer is careful not to exaggerate the job opportunities in the exploration phase. The "A-team companies", like Exxon, BP, Total and Chevron, that the industry wants, have global deals in place and so opportunities in the value chain "won't be so great" in the initial stages.
"The opportunities for locals come when we get to production phase. Then these companies will want local skills and services because it's cheaper for them."
But the higher up the value chain the more skills they will have to import.
"We need to get a grip on the infrastructure that will be needed. If we discover oil and gas offshore or onshore, how are we going to monetise that?"
The scale of investment needed is mind-boggling. To sink one exploratory hole in the seabed you're talking well over $150m (about R2bn).
"Thirty-five wells were drilled before they hit one that catalysed the North Sea."
The kind of wealth something like that brings has to be harvested in a disciplined way with good policy, regulations and, ultimately, the right government leadership.
"I think we're starting to see that. It's stronger now in the energy sector than it's been for years."
Investors keep stressing the need for policy certainty, rule of law and, given intended changes to the constitution to allow expropriation without compensation, the sanctity of private property.
"The land issue is the big bogey in all of this at the moment. But big oil and gas explorers have been in tricky parts of the world from Russia to Venezuela for years and years, so operating in tricky conditions is not something that is new to them, and their analysis is typically fairly sophisticated."
How might an ANC-EFF coalition government with a nationalisation agenda affect their appetite?
Unlike geology, policies and agendas are things that can be changed, Kramer says.
"People were nay-saying the North Sea project. Then it happened and suddenly you have the wherewithal to start addressing all of these social, national-type issues, and you can start redistributing opportunity and wealth, and not redistributing poverty."
What about the environmental risks?
"Every one of these exploration/production activities needs the right environmental and other approvals."
Having the right approvals didn't prevent Deepwater Horizon, the catastrophic oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010 that destroyed beaches, wetlands and tourism industries.
The right processes weren't followed, Kramer says. The capacity of regulators to check and enforce will be key.
SA's weak regulatory and monitoring capacity means it's not impossible that a similar catastrophe could happen in our waters, he concedes.
"But key in that is that we are attractive enough to the right players. The enthusiasm and interest is so high that it is going to happen. When it happens we want the best-possible experienced players to come and explore and produce."
Of course, BP was in this category, and Deepwater Horizon was a BP project.
"We've got a little bit of a window now to put in place all the necessary measures from a regulatory and state capacity point of view. My big worry is that we miss the biggest economic opportunity the country has had since mining."
Look at mining's contribution to SA's GDP over the past century, he says. "We could be looking at a number like that."..