Vodacom and MTN are in a race to cover 100% of SA with 4G, but will they continue to do so if the commercial incentive evaporates?
MTN, which has supplied 90% of the population with 4G, allowing for higher-speed wireless internet access, said it had spent R43.6bn in growing its network in the past four years and would spend a further R9.7bn in the current financial year.
Vodacom recently said the company had pledged to invest R50bn in SA in the next five years to grow its network.
But the two biggest operators in the market are fearful of recent changes to the Electronic Communications Amendment (ECA) Bill, which seeks to give effect to the policy objectives of the National Integrated ICT Policy white paper, published in late 2016.
A number of amendments have been made that aim to regulate competition in the market and the sharing of network infrastructure.
The most contentious issue is around network sharing.
The bill proposes to create a Wholesale Open Access Network (Woan). This will see operators that have invested in infrastructure giving part of the network over to an open-access network, which policymakers say will help lower barriers to entry for the market.
The bill prescribes that operators with infrastructure share their networks with other players at cost, with no mark-up for this access.
MTN says it is not wholly against the Woan.
CEO Godfrey Motsa said earlier this week: "The Yellow Network is open to sharing its network on commercially agreeable arrangements."
Vodacom and MTN have the most developed mobile networks in the country and will likely be most affected by the change as they seek to recoup the costs of developing their networks.
Submissions made to parliament by MTN and Vodacom - which Business Times has seen copies of - show support for the bill but recommend that the current proposals on the Woan be changed.
According to MTN, the bill, "will harm incentives to invest, will harm competition and will harm consumers, in particular the poorest and most vulnerable consumers. Quality of service will also be affected since investment in infrastructure will slow down."
Vodacom says: "The changes in the bill will risk serious undermining of investment incentives - as mobile operators invest in networks and spectrum jointly, in order to be able to offer mobile services. These proposed changes should be removed."
Policymakers have argued that the amendments inserted are to encourage competition in the market.
Telkom, which also has large telecommunications infrastructure in place, including the country's largest fibreoptic network, has come out in support of the Woan, saying it helps to level the playing field. Telkom has network-sharing deals in place with both Vodacom and MTN. Cell C has a similar agreement with MTN.
Motsa believes that undermining competition in the market will not help to drive down pricing for data.
Ruhan du Plessis, an analyst at Avior Capital Markets, says smaller players in the market will benefit the most as they will be able to simply access existing infrastructure at cost from operators such as Vodacom and MTN.
The danger is that this can discourage companies from investing in new network infrastructure if operators know that they can simply have access to another operator's network.
In a world where operators are priming themselves for the roll-out of 5G services from 2019 onwards, operators may simply take advantage of the new system and wait for someone else to build the network, access the network at cost, and offer their service to customers, according to Du Plessis.
In such as environment, who wants to be first or to take the risk if they will not be able to reap the rewards of their investment?..