GDP growth of 8% in one act? Mantashe says it’s possible

08 October 2024 - 12:00
By Khulekani Magubane
Mineral and petroleum resources minister Gwede Mantashe at the Africa Oil Week: Investing in African Energy event at Cape Town International Convention Centre on October 8.
Image: Esa Alexander/Reuters Mineral and petroleum resources minister Gwede Mantashe at the Africa Oil Week: Investing in African Energy event at Cape Town International Convention Centre on October 8.

Mineral and petroleum resources minister Gwede Mantashe says development of the upstream petroleum sector distinct from mining through legislation aimed at driving investment could yield GDP growth of up to 8%.

Speaking at the 30th annual Africa Oil Week in Cape Town on Tuesday, Mantashe said the Upstream Petroleum Resources Development Bill would be the boon that could free the South African economy from the low-growth trap it has languished in for the past 15 years.

This target appears more ambitious than that of the second phase in the government-business partnership launched last week. That partnership, which has seen marked improvements in energy supply and logistical bottlenecks, targets 3.3% growth for the economy by the end of 2025.

Introduced in parliament in 2021, the bill has been passed by the National Assembly and National Council of Provinces and awaits President Cyril Ramaphosa's signature.

Mantashe told delegates the enactment of the bill will boost the economy by 6% and break the cycle of low growth.

“We are convinced that once the bill is enacted, it will not only pave [the] way for development of the upstream petroleum industry but will boost economic growth to 8%. If we make a breakthrough in the petroleum sector we will break the mode of being a low economic growth economy. We can grow between 5% and 8% per annum in GDP,” he said.

The bill will allow petroleum to be established as an independent sector to mining, a first in South Africa.

“That [bill] is important because it establishes petroleum as an independent sector of the economy. It’s not an appendage of mining. Mining is a sector, petroleum is a sector.”

Mantashe said TotalEnergies’ exit from southern coast blocks announced earlier this year should not be taken as a sign that the sun is setting on the oil and gas sector in the country.

“In the past two years, TotalEnergies, Shell and Galp have made eight discoveries in three blocks in Namibia’s Orange Basin, representing an estimated 3.5-billion barrels of potentially recoverable oil.”

The discoveries have led to huge interest by major petroleum companies since discoveries in Namibian and Mozambican waters may extend south into South Africa.

“Though TotalEnergies has announced their exit on the block, there remains good potential for other oil and gas players to partner with the remaining operator — MainStreet — and develop the block.

“Contrary to the view that suggests TotalEnergies' withdrawal from the block is tantamount to lack of confidence, it is encouraging that the company is a major shareholder in three blocks north of South Africa’s Orange Basin in deep to ultra-deep waters and a 100% shareholder of another larger block that is three times the size of the 11b/12b in Southern Outeniqua.”

Business Times