Zuma must get off the fence

Frank and open debate is the cornerstone of democracy. The robust discussions about the country's political leadership and policy direction at Cosatu's central committee meeting this past week were, therefore, further confirmation that our young democracy remains vibrant.

President Jacob Zuma's record in office came under scrutiny as unions - which were instrumental in him ascending to the post - wondered publicly if they should support his bid for a second term.

In a continent where democracy is not yet deeply entrenched, it is rare to hear civil society debating so openly about the weaknesses of a sitting head of state without fear of reprisal.

However, there is a downside to the debates over succession and possible policy shifts within the ruling ANC-led alliance. Badly handled, as they currently appear to be, they have the potential to hold the entire country hostage and discourage much-needed foreign direct investment.

Policy certainty is one of the key issues investors consider before committing their resources to a country.

But with various components of the alliance propagating such diverse opinions on major economic issues like the nationalisation of the mines, land expropriation and the government's economic growth blueprint - the National Growth Path - potential investors may lose their appetite for South Africa.

As a result of these differences, the country is stuck in neutral as far as economic policy is concerned. We are unable to shift into gear and move the country towards resolving the crises of high unemployment, inequality and poverty because Zuma's administration is fearful of offending powerful alliance factions.

With 18 months to go before the ANC's elective conference, the leadership succession battle has started in earnest.

This means Zuma is likely to keep his views about the country's policy direction to himself, hoping that this will help him to keep Cosatu, the SA Communist Party and the ANC Youth League on his side as he seeks a second term. This may work wonders for his election campaign, but it will spell disaster for South Africa.

As the Cosatu gathering last week - and the youth league congress three weeks ago - demonstrated, each group would support the president's bid provided he agreed to a number of their policy conditions. Each group's conditions are in sharp contradiction to those of their rivals.

Zuma has to show leadership by convincing his partners to agree on a long-term policy programme that would bring stability and certainty to the country and investors.