Editorial: Drawing hope from a year of catastrophes

03 January 2016 - 02:00 By Sunday Times

The year 2015 is past and an unsullied 2016 lies seductively before us. Those are at least two things to be pleased about, surely. But are there any others? Peering into the coming 12 months and trying to detect events to which South Africans can look forward with joy is not only difficult, it's also not for sissies.The reason for this is that we tend to define the future in terms of what has happened in the immediate past. And 2015 has not, putting it mildly, been at all good for the country's body politic (which includes you and us).story_article_left1The ANC behaved appallingly and had a disastrous year - and, alas, our economic and financial circumstances are irretrievably interwoven with our political fortunes.You need only reflect on a modest sampling of President Jacob Zuma's blunders and those of his government to realise just how disastrous and farcical the political arena was last year.In October, when students marched on the Union Buildings demanding a freeze on university fee increases, Zuma did not emerge to talk to them. Nor did Blade Nzimande, the minister of higher education. A classic Zumaesque non-response. As a result, the situation deteriorated and young people clashed with their own police force and burnt mobile toilets. In June, the International Criminal Court - South Africa is a signatory of the Rome Statute governing the court - asked the government to arrest Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir, wanted on charges of genocide. In flagrant disregard of a court order, Zuma's government allowed Bashir to leave the country unhindered.In September, Zuma summarily appointed the former Free State agriculture MEC, Mosebenzi Zwane, to replace Ngoako Ramatlhodi as minister of mineral resources, an important position. No one seems to know why, but those in the know say Ramatlhodi had crossed swords with Zuma cronies. Then, in December, Zuma replaced the respected and apparently prudent finance minister, Nhlanhla Nene, with unknown backbencher David van Rooyen - only to be forced by wiser heads to reinstall Pravin Gordhan as finance minister and to place Van Rooyen at co-operative governance and traditional affairs.The estimated cost of Zuma's apparent mental lapse was R171-billion as the rand and shares plummeted.story_article_right2This is probably a good point at which to note that, flowing from events such as the Nene sacking, the economic prognosis for 2016 is also not looking at all jolly.Emerging markets economist Peter Attard Montalto recently listed a number of "risky events" that could drag down the economy even further, depending on how they play out.The first is Eskom and its application for increased tariffs. Second is the cost of the proposed nuclear power stations which, Montalto believes, could result in more negative rating implications for South Africa due to the massive state-to-state guarantees for repayment that will probably be required. Third is the drought, set to be even worse than previously thought and which will drive up food prices. Fourth is mining sector restructuring (especially the gold, platinum and iron ore sectors), which could well lead to more strike action and increased tension between the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union and the National Union of Mineworkers. Fifth is "wages and strike action" generally, which could contribute to rising inflation. Finally, the economist is concerned about the negative impact that a proposed minimum wage would have on the lowest-skilled and lowest-paid people.But Montalto's field is macroeconomics. What about the rest of us mere micro-people? In 2016, we'll need to juggle inflation hikes, interest hikes, taxes, school fees, electricity prices, petrol costs, the road toll nonsense, and, above all, food cost increases. Total consumer debt is in the trillions and we are apparently among the biggest borrowers in the world.What then to look forward to?story_article_left3Happily, the seeds of future hope, just as of present sadness, can be found in 2015's tale of woe.For one thing, after the Nene disaster, we can be pretty sure that Zuma and his cronies are hobbled - which will be good for the economy and our pockets.More importantly, one campaign that was truly remarkable, that took everyone by surprise (especially the ANC), and was clearly successful was the #FeesMustFall protest movement of the country's young people, most of them born-frees.The significance of the protest was twofold. First, the students were neither cowed by, nor overly reverent about, the ANC. Second, it was a citizens' protest - ordinary citizens grasping the proverbial nettle and sticking bravely to the job.South Africa holds municipal elections this year. So shabby was the ANC's performance in 2015 that Montalto has forecast - as a strong "possibility" - the recall of Jacob Zuma around July if the ruling party does badly.That's something to look forward to. Even more so, we can look forward to seeing all of us, having learnt a lesson from the students, realising that we can as citizens change our lives - not by whingeing on Facebook or flinging poo but by exercising our rights in the voting booths...

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