The big vote comes down to this - South Africa v the Guptas

The choice before parliament is obvious, but will not be so expressly portrayed on the ballot paper. It's the people of South Africa v the Gupta family.

Zuma's name will be on the ballot paper, but he is not in power. You don't have to take my word for it. When asked about the revelations that former deputy finance minister Mcebisi Jonas had been offered a bribe by the Gupta family, Zuma growled: "Don't ask me. Ask Jonas. Ask the Guptas."

When Faith Muthambi wanted new powers for her erstwhile communication ministry, it was to Tony Gupta that she turned, not the president. When she was displeased with Siyabonga Cwele's behaviour in the cabinet, she turned to Tony Gupta, not the president. When Mineral Resources Minister Mosebenzi Zwane, after paying R30-million for the Gupta wedding, thought he deserved a place in the cabinet rather than being a Free State MEC, he turned to Tony Gupta and got it.

When Zuma wanted to talk to the government of the United Arab Emirates, he did not turn to the South African embassy or the Department of International Relations and Co-operation, but to the Guptas. When Atul Gupta wanted to be an honorary consul to the Democratic Republic of Congo, he sent a letter to that government claiming to be a minister in the South African government - with nary a word from Zuma.

The damage done

When the Guptas wanted South African citizenship, they simply turned to their favourite minister, Malusi Gigaba, then in charge of home affairs, and got it. When they wanted a coal mine and contracts from Eskom for it, they simply dragooned Zwane and sent him to Switzerland to shake down Glencore.

The Guptas transferred Brian Molefe and Anoj Singh from Transnet, where they had engineered a lucrative locomotives deal for them, to Eskom. The pair proceeded to hand the Guptas the money to pay for the coal mine, overpaid for the coal to make it profitable and paid them some cash through Trillian.

As the banks closed their accounts, the Guptas set up their own bank, which they wanted licensed over the objections of the National Treasury and the Reserve Bank. Zuma, to help his friends, removed the minister and the deputy minister of finance in the face of overwhelming rage from South Africans and to the dismay of the markets.

The term "state capture" feels inadequate against the very real damage wrought in the country. In the place of our constitutional state, we have a shadow state run from Saxonwold. Instead of the economy, we have the Guptas' financial interests as the primary concern of our government. Instead of pursuing social justice, we are too busy shielding crooks from an accounting. Our money is destined for Dubai rather than Soweto.

State institutions have been hollowed out and in their place are tools for private interests. Anyone who has stood in the way of this corrosion has been pushed out, had their reputations damaged by dodgy "intelligence dossiers" and been threatened with violence. For a while, even the language we used to speak of the challenges we face was borrowed from Margaret Thatcher's favourite PR firm, which once had Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet as a client.

Voters move on

The ANC argument that to act against Zuma would be to invite the division of the venerable movement is belied by facts. It is under Zuma that the ANC has suffered two breakaways - COPE and the EFF. It is under Zuma that the National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa broke away from Cosatu to form a rival federation. It was the campaign to bring him to power in Polokwane that solidified factions, the use of slates and the growth of bogus branches. It is under Zuma that the ANC suffered losses in last year's local government elections.

It is because of Zuma that the ANC faces the distinct possibility of losing the national elections in 2019.

In short, if you're looking at Zuma for a president, you're looking into a void. South Africans have moved on. The people of Nquthu took the food parcels and voted the other way. The people of Nkandla stood in the queue with Zuma, chatted with him and voted the other way. In the Nelson Mandela Bay metro, where once the ANC could muster over 70% of the vote, the people voted it out. In Johannesburg and Tshwane, they voted it out.

So, even if it is merely preservation of the ANC, rather than the protection of our sovereignty that you're concerned with, Zuma is not your friend.

Too many times parliament has shirked its responsibility to hold him to account. The stain of Nkandla cannot be washed away. Every MP now has the chance to redeem themselves before the nation. It's obvious how you should vote.

• Msimang is a patron of FutureSA, a broad new coalition of civil society organisations aimed at ending state capture and reclaiming South Africa