Long-shot Mkhize takes inside track in scramble to replace Zuma

Understated campaigner's 'unity' message is fast gaining traction, which is attracting the attention of both the Ramaphosa and NDZ camps

15 October 2017 - 00:00 By QAANITAH HUNTER

For someone whose participation in the ANC presidential race was doubtful until a month or so ago, party treasurer-general Zweli Mkhize is running an effective campaign.
Just a few months ago - despite several names being thrown into the ring as possible successors to President Jacob Zuma - the contest was seen as a two-horse affair involving Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa and Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma.
And then Mkhize entered the fray with his "unity" message, selling himself to the ANC rank and file as a leader who can unify the factions and lead the troubled party to another election victory in 2019.
Campaigners from both the Dlamini-Zuma and Ramaphosa teams acknowledge in private that Mkhize's "unity" message is gaining traction.
Which would explain the sudden attention both sides are now paying to Mkhize and his campaign.Over the past two weeks a number of reports have claimed that Mkhize is now Zuma's "Plan B" in case the Dlamini-Zuma bid fell flat. Others have even claimed that Mkhize was Zuma's anointed successor all along and that Dlamini-Zuma is just a decoy.
With his reputation as a crafty politician who always seems a few steps ahead of his rivals when it comes to political contests, it is understandable that Zuma would be suspected of deceit.
But is it possible that Mkhize - one of only three ANC senior leaders to stand up to Zuma when he reshuffled his cabinet earlier this year - can be a pawn in the president's grand scheme to stay out of jail once he leaves office?
Mkhize told Sunday Times this week he was his "own person" and that he can't be anointed by Zuma, as only "branches of the ANC decide".
Yet there was a time when they were so close that Mkhize was regarded as Zuma's right-hand man.
In a recent letter Mkhize wrote in response to Redi Tlhabi's book Khwezi, the former KwaZulu-Natal premier describes in detail how Zuma had confided in him after learning Khwezi was accusing him of rape. In the letter, Mkhize describes Zuma - who he first met in exile in the 1980s - as having "always been like a big brother to me".However, those close to both men say that the relationship ended a few years ago and that it is highly unlikely that Zuma would see Mkhize as his "Plan B", never mind preferring him over Dlamini-Zuma.Party branches are scheduled to start formally nominating their preferred candidates in the next three weeks.
Only then, with each candidate able to assess their areas of strength and weakness, will the real horse-trading begin.
Some of the candidates may end up abandoning their bids for the presidency in favour of other senior positions in the party leadership.
For a while Mkhize was tipped as deputy president if Ramaphosa won the race. But the Ramaphosa campaign felt it stood a better chance against Dlamini-Zuma if it had a woman as a candidate. Hence the choice of Lindiwe Sisulu.
One should not, however, rule out the possibility of a rethink by the Ramaphosa camp - especially if it decides that Mkhize's "unity" message is eating into the deputy president's support base. It has already taken potential votes from Ramaphosa in the Eastern Cape's Alfred Nzo region.
The Dlamini-Zuma camp has also suffered, with Mkhize winning supporters in its would-be power base, KwaZulu-Natal. There the support has been split in three ways, with no chance that the 870 delegates allocated to the province will arrive at the December conference as a cohesive bloc...

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