Jacob Zuma: South Africa's political risk

22 October 2017 - 00:00 By Peter Bruce

Remember the row in September 2004 when the then CEO of Anglo American, Tony Trahar, gave what he thought was a charitable answer to a question about political risk in South Africa during a Financial Times interview?
Trahar said he thought political risk in South Africa had declined but, he said, "I won't say it has completely disappeared".
Thabo Mbeki, president at the time, quickly let fly at Trahar. "The ANC and the government," he growled in a newsletter, "would like to know to which political risk Trahar is referring."
History improves over time, though. Now, 13 years later, we know Trahar was a little off the mark. Political risk wasn't waning. It was there, simmering away.Zuma has had 18 charges of racketeering, corruption, fraud and money laundering against him reinstated and the economy is stuck in a deep hole dug mainly by himself.
And as it becomes clear to Zuma and everyone else that the president is not as totally in control of the coming party election as he would like, the tension in the country rises. What will he do to his main challenger, his deputy, Cyril Ramaphosa, to stop him and to ensure that his candidate, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, replaces him in the party job and, ultimately, as head of state?
He and Ramaphosa are openly at war and rumours swirl about plots to somehow get Ramaphosa out of the way before December. Zuma could fire him as deputy president but that's of the country, not the party. Ramaphosa could still contest and, in fact, firing him could strengthen him for December.
This week a WhatsApp message is doing the rounds, warning that Zuma will invent another intelligence report, as he did to fire Gordhan, and have Ramaphosa arrested and charged with treason as a Western "spy". That way Ramaphosa would not be able to stand at all...

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