What’s that sound? Gigaba choking on a poisoned chalice

Even for a government hopelessly disconnected from reality and contemptuous of the media and the people it serves‚ it is astounding that the presidency has not bothered to issue a statement of denial about the Russian involvement in President Jacob Zuma’s cabinet reshuffle last week.

The Sunday Times revealed that Russian securocrats met Zuma before he made a surprise round of changes to the cabinet. This included the deployment of the Russian’s handpicked henchman‚ David Mahlobo‚ as the new Energy Minister.

Zuma maintains he owes nobody any explanations about changes he makes to the executive. His understanding of his presidential powers is that they give him supremacy that may not be questioned no matter how nefarious his intentions are.

But the context this week is significant.

Mahlobo’s assignment to the energy portfolio is a transparent move to placate Zuma’s Russian visitors who are concerned that the wheels on the nuclear build programme are not turning.

Zuma’s move ahead of the presentation of the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) this week is an indicator that the president has little concern about investor perceptions or the economic health of the nation.

The sound you are hearing‚ therefore‚ is Malusi Gigaba choking as he sips from that poisoned chalice he so eagerly grabbed when Zuma bequeathed him the responsibility of the most crucial post in the South African government.

Gigaba’s Instagram account might have reflected him basking in the glory of the political fast lane but he has since learnt that his task was not to shine as the superstar of cabinet.

His deployment was not Zuma looking to pass the torch to a younger generation of leaders by entrusting him with the huge responsibility of navigating the economy through its most testing period post democracy.

Gigaba’s job was to bend the hitherto fortified National Treasury to serve a corrupt network that had hit a blockage in its looting spree. For as long as the unyielding trio of Pravin Gordhan‚ Mcebisi Jonas and Lungisa Fuzile stood guard over the Treasury‚ there was no possible way for Zuma‚ his benefactors and his cronies to access further state resources.

Gigaba had already proved himself useful to the Gupta family as an enabler for their corrupt deals during his stint in Public Enterprises. As Finance Minister he has been given a seat at the top table but only for as long as he can fulfil the impossible mandate he has been given.

Gigaba has to make sure the economy does not tank while finding innovative ways to prise open the state vault to finance the deals that Gordhan refused to consider.

In the past few months‚ Gigaba and his deputy Sfiso Buthelezi have discovered how difficult it is to make a play for the Public Investment Corporation funds. Under close scrutiny of the media and the unions‚ pension funds that might have been routed to the bottomless pit that is South African Airways (SAA) have remained out of reach.

Gigaba did however manage to raid the National Revenue Fund to the tune of R5.2 billion to come to SAA’s rescue.

But the MTBPS is Gigaba’s big moment of reckoning. The international ratings agencies have him on a short leash and any risky manoeuvres will be costly.

But he also has to prove his worth to his political masters in Pretoria‚ Dubai and now Moscow. If he maintains the cautious and measured stance of the Gordhan era‚ it means he is simply defying the puppet masters.

In any event‚ under tight fiscal conditions there is actually not much Gigaba can do right now. If he starts jingling the vault keys‚ the markets will take fright.

By accepting the post of finance minister when the political agenda behind Gordhan’s axing was so clear‚ Gigaba consented to becoming the bagman. Surely he should have seen that this was a self-defeating and unwinnable assignment.

The fact that Zuma dared to create further political instability ahead of the MTBPS shows that it does not matter to him that Gigaba is now under even more pressure.

Gigaba‚ like everyone else who has been thrown under the bus‚ is expendable once he is no longer useful.

When he stands before parliament on Wednesday‚ he should have that in mind.