When ANC president Cyril Ramaphosa stands up to address his party's 106th anniversary celebrations in East London on Saturday, he will not only be speaking to the comrades, those thousands crammed into the stadium named after a bank, totem of so-called white monopoly capital.
Many in South Africa - and beyond - will be hanging on his every word.
He has to confront the elephant in the room. People don't want to know if Jacob Zuma will go. They want to know when. And the sooner the better. Ramaphosa will have to be swift and decisive. He has to eat that frog. The first steps he takes will either doom or enhance his reputation.
There are some who are already putting it about that he can't act rashly because he has a divided top six, with the corrupt Zuma-supporting Ace Magashule ensconced as secretary-general and the machiavellian David Mabuza at his elbow. It is also said that Ramaphosa has only a tenuous majority in the NEC.
These are all excuses, arguments for doing nothing.
Whatever the permutations, Ramaphosa has to play the hand he's been dealt. An effective leader always gets his way. He has to persuade, inspire, cajole and - if need be - threaten to get people to toe the line. And leaders have all manner of tools to accomplish that.One of the most powerful is that he's in charge: he calls the shots.
Too much is being made of the fact that Zuma's lapdogs have made it onto the NEC and that they'll do everything in their power to stymie any attempt to get rid of Zuma. These people may be toadies, but they're no fools. They can't die or kill for Zuma any more. He's history. But they have children to feed and bonds to pay. Anyway, flunkeys - people without any discernible talent - always tend to gravitate towards those in power. That's how they survive.
You won't be surprised, for instance, to learn that some of them are already making furtive attempts to ingratiate themselves with the new leader.
These people have to make peace with the fact that Ramaphosa will be leader of the party for the next five to 10 years. It's in their interests to get along with him. Ramaphosa should exploit this to his advantage.
The appeals for party unity following a hard-fought and acrimonious leadership contest are code for doing nothing; for not rocking the boat. They're often made by Zuma supporters who themselves had scant regard for unity, collegiality or consideration for opposing views when they were in charge. It is therefore an appeal for the status quo to continue untroubled. In other words, Zuma and his gang of robbers should stay in power and continue to loot. That's a situation the country cannot afford.The role of ideology or policy is often overstated or exaggerated in politics. It is personality, rather than policy, that often matters. Which is why Cosatu and the SACP have had no trouble lining up behind Ramaphosa, a former trade unionist who seamlessly morphed into a billionaire. Before that they had, without any qualm or shame, supported Zuma, a scandal-prone tribal chauvinist.
Despite well-crafted policy documents, a political party always tends to take on the character of its leader.
The ANC has had three leaders since it got into power, and with each it has looked and sounded like a different organisation.
Under Nelson Mandela's ethical leadership the party was all reconciliation, bringing people together and letting bygones be bygones. Thabo Mbeki, apart from mining old wounds, pointed us towards the continent and reminded us that we are part of it and that we should work for its betterment. Zuma came into office dragging a caravan of scandals, and proceeded to corrupt his party and plunged the country into shame and embarrassment.
Ramaphosa has the opportunity to impose his own personality on the party. But first he has to atone for his sins. While Zuma is the avowed culprit when it comes to corruption and state capture, Ramaphosa is in a way complicit in what's been going on. These things took place under his nose. He therefore has a moral obligation to clean up the mess. But to do that, he has to remove Zuma.He has no business feeling sorry for Zuma or treating him with kid gloves. Zuma has not been nice to him. After Ramaphosa helped him win a second term, Zuma not only cast him aside in favour of his ex-wife, he set his dogs on him, doing everything he could to stop him getting the top job. Ramaphosa can now return the favour.
But removing Zuma alone won't be enough. He must take his dregs and debris with him. Malusi Gigaba cannot possibly remain in charge of the country's finances. He's too compromised, and out of his depth. He should be removed before he does too much damage. Mcebisi Jonas would be a good fit. And Pravin Gordhan at public enterprises would be fun. It'd be setting the cat among the pigeons.
The idea of Thuli Madonsela at the NPA is very appealing. The situation is almost tailor-made for her - speaking very softly and carrying a big stick.
It's promising to be an eventful year, one that could decide our destiny...