Patient strategy pays off as Cyril cleans up mess Zuma left behind

Critics demand that he move more quickly, but biding his time seems to be working for president

04 March 2018 - 00:00 By SIBONGAKONKE SHOBA

When President Cyril Ramaphosa flew into Luanda this week for talks with Angolan President João Lourenço, he might have half-expected he would have time to share notes on the art of removing corrupt dynasties from power without much resistance.
Both men, after all, recently achieved what for years had seemed impossible - unseating powerful families who had turned their countries into fiefdoms. They have both inherited countries ravaged by years of corruption, economic mismanagement and dysfunctional criminal justice systems. To fix these would be a mammoth task.
There are many differences in the manner in which Ramaphosa defeated the Zuma-Gupta dynasty to that followed by Lourenço, in freeing Angola from the stranglehold of the family of former president José Eduardo dos Santos. But there are important similarities too.There was no "Ramaphoria" when Lourenço took over from Dos Santos in August, as critics saw him as nothing but a protector for the former president. But Lourenço moved surprisingly quickly, first against the former president's son José Filomeno, as chairman of the country's wealth fund, then his daughter Isabel, believed to be one of the richest women in Africa, as the boss of the state-owned oil company Sonangol.
Ramaphosa followed a similar strategy to become president. For years, he avoided publicly criticising Jacob Zuma, knowing this would set him against what was then the most powerful faction in the ANC. He began speaking out at the end of 2015, when there were only two years left of Zuma's term as ANC president and the party's structures were beginning to realign themselves in search of the next leader.
Timing, for him, was everything and the strategy paid off when he emerged the winner at the party conference in December. It worked again over the past few weeks as he took his time to win over key ANC constituencies - thus isolating Zuma - as he pushed for the former president to leave office early.
It is the strategy he seems to have employed in naming his new cabinet. The criticism from some sectors about the reshuffle is understandable. But Ramaphosa has proved over the past few months that his strategy of patience is effective.
He resisted pressure from supporters to resign from Zuma's cabinet when Pravin Gordhan and Mcebisi Jonas were dismissed. Had he acted on emotion, he would have lost sympathy with his party: Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma would have won and Zuma would still be the boss. Expect Ramaphosa to handle Zuma's cronies in his cabinet in the same way. He will not act now, but act he will.Ramaphosa agrees that Bathabile Dlamini's continued stay in cabinet is an insult to taxpayers who had hoped that under his leadership, honest and hard-working men and women would take over the reins of government. Her stint at the Department of Social Development proved she is unfit for public office.
The same can be said of Nomvula Mokonyane. Her elevation to the troubled Communications Department has not sent a positive message to those who sought a complete overhaul of the cabinet.
Critics say Ramaphosa missed an opportunity when he failed to defy ANC tradition by not naming a person other than former Mpumalanga premier David Mabuza as his deputy. He probably wanted someone else, a woman - Naledi Pandor or Lindiwe Sisulu. But no president from the ANC has succeeded in having a deputy at government level who is not also deputy at party level.
Nelson Mandela preferred to have Ramaphosa as his deputy in 1994 but the party forced him to take Thabo Mbeki. When Mandela stepped down in 1999, Mbeki toyed with the idea of having IFP leader Mangosuthu Buthelezi as his deputy in return for the IFP handing over the KwaZulu-Natal premiership to the ANC.
In 2005, when Mbeki eventually found a way of getting rid of Zuma amid reports that the then deputy president was to be prosecuted for corruption, he faced an open rebellion in ANC structures that eventually led to his own removal.
There is also the example of Zuma's trying to pick now National Assembly Speaker Baleka Mbete ahead of Kgalema Motlanthe.As justified as the unhappiness with Ramaphosa's latest move may be, many critics choose to ignore the hurdles he had to clear to make the changes.
Unlike Zuma in 2007, Ramaphosa did not win by an overwhelming majority in December. He leads a divided top six and has only a slim majority in the national executive committee.
Party structures also remain divided - as became evident when some ANC branches in KwaZulu-Natal expressed their unhappiness with Zuma's removal.
With the looming general election, which will test Ramaphosa's popularity, he dare not isolate those who did not support him. The 2016 local government elections showed the party's support is on a downward spiral and Ramaphosa could not risk having disgruntled activists in any part of the country.
This is what informed the decision to retain opponents such as Dlamini, Mokonyane and Maite Nkoana-Mashabane, and to appoint Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma in the Presidency. All of them have real support in the ANC Women's League and at least three provincial party structures.What seems to matter to Ramaphosa and his allies is that all the key cabinet posts have now gone to people he can trust. The appointment of Nhlanhla Nene in finance, Pravin Gordhan at public enterprises and Gwede Mantashe at mineral resources shut the door for the capturers of the state.
The dismissal of Faith Muthambi, Mosebenzi Zwane, Des van Rooyen and others cleaned out the stink of Gupta influence in Zuma's cabinet. The removal of Dlamini to an office with no budget can only weaken her influence. By the time Ramaphosa acts against her she may have lost control of the women's league.
People in his circle say the cleanup is only the beginning as Ramaphosa is expected to tighten his grip on government. He has announced a government review, aimed at reducing the number of departments, which will translate to a slimmer cabinet.
Once again his supporters within and outside the ANC and government want him to wield the axe as soon as the review is concluded. It is a frustrating strategy for the impatient, but it has worked wonders for Ramaphosa's political fortunes.
• Shoba is political editor..

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