Cosatu presented an organisational report to its elective congress in November 2015 that made for sobering reading - of the 13.4million workers in South Africa, only 3.7million were unionised, and of those only 1.9million were members of Cosatu-affiliated unions.
The 1.9million figure - about 14% of the total workforce - had remained more or less stagnant since 2000, representing a dismal failure by the labour federation to attain its ambitious target of four million members by 2009. With sluggish economic growth, high unemployment and increasing casualisation of workers, the future was not looking rosy.
The conference was held amid fractious turmoil over Cosatu's alliance with the ANC, still under president Jacob Zuma at the time. Earlier that year the National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa, Cosatu's biggest affiliate with 330,000 members, had been expelled for questioning the relationship with the ruling party.
Cosatu maintained Numsa was expelled for organising in sectors dominated by sister unions, but whatever the reason, the decision to expel an affiliate that contributed just over R1-million to Cosatu every month was extremely short-sighted. Not only did it seriously divide the labour movement, it contributed to the formation of a new federation that is now eating Cosatu's lunch.
That same year Cosatu's popular general secretary Zwelinzima Vavi - another vocal critic of the ANC leadership under Zuma - was also expelled. Although his hangmen cited the affair he had had with a Cosatu staffer a year earlier, it was evident that Vavi's stance on the ANC leadership had become too unpalatable for his Cosatu comrades.Instead of disappearing into obscurity, Vavi has teamed up with Numsa to create an alternative platform, the South African Federation of Trade Unions.
If there were any doubts about the industrial might of the new federation, they were dispelled when it mobilised thousands of workers last month to protest the R20-an-hour national minimum wage proposal. This despite Cosatu's fervent appeals to workers not to join the protest.
Vavi boasts that in just over a year his federation has attracted 30 affiliates representing 700,000 members, but these figures are yet to be independently verified. He also claims that Saftu is in negotiations with three other unions - which he declined to name - that would bring in an additional 100,000 members.
He laughs when asked about Saftu's early impact on Cosatu.
"Don't compare apples and oranges. Cosatu staged what it called the mother of all strikes; it was a damp squib, only 2,000 workers showed up to march that day. Their remaining members are not fools, they are not going to march for rubbish. Their members are in transition, many of them are going to join us," he says.
Vavi may be buoyant and Cosatu does have cause for concern, but the realities of organising from scratch in the labour sphere are frustrating Saftu's progress. With Numsa as an anchor, Saftu was able to lure the Food and Allied Workers Union, with just over 130,000 members, into the fold. However, the new federation is battling to get a seat on the National Economic Development and Labour Council, where the government, business and labour engage.
Nedlac's labour constituency, made up of Cosatu, the Federation of Unions of South Africa and the National Council of Trade Unions, is reluctant to share the space with a new player. They have set criteria for entry that require new entrants to have been in existence for at least two years and to be able to produce audited membership figures and financial statements.TWO AFFILIATES DOMINATE
Numsa and Fawu account for almost 70% of Saftu's membership. Other members are relatively obscure unions whose impact in their sectors is questionable, and newly formed alternatives that are yet to be tested.
Cosatu general secretary Bheki Ntshalintshali says many of the smaller unions are not represented in their sectoral bargaining councils, and some of Saftu's affiliates are competing in the same sectors.
"Take the bus strike, for example," he says. "Numsa organises in the bus sector but one of their affiliates is also in the transport sector, so you have unions that are competing among themselves. Is this a federation, is it sustainable or is it based on personalities?"
Ntshalintshali says Cosatu has felt no impact from the creation of Saftu yet, but acknowledges the expulsion of Numsa hurt his federation in the pocket.
"The affiliation fee they were paying is lost, it's a fact. We knew about it [when Numsa was expelled] but the question of money was not an issue, it was about principle. You have to live with what you have, we are not running unions to make money."
But if Cosatu's 2015 organisational report is anything to go by, the loss of Numsa and Fawu has weakened the federation substantially.
Given that Cosatu affiliates are naturally struggling to attract new members, it can be deduced that a loss of two affiliates with a combined membership of almost 500,000 will have had a severe impact on not just finances but organisational might as well.
This means that at its next congress Cosatu should report total membership figures of under 1.4million. Should this downward trend continue and should Saftu succeed in attracting new members, it is not far-fetched to predict that within five years Saftu might be bigger than Cosatu.
Perhaps Cosatu should be pressing the panic button, but it is still the biggest federation in the country and its alliance with the ANC places it close to state power - although critics argue that this cosiness with the governing party is damaging Cosatu even further.
Saftu is redefining the trade union movement, and if its membership continues to grow, it is bound to surpass the shrinking Cosatu. But Vavi and Numsa chief Irvin Jim and company must not fool themselves: a lot of work lies ahead before they can write Cosatu's obituary...